A Vermont woolly bear crossing a patch of pine needles on an access road this week is feeding the old habit of predicting a harsh winter using wildlife, and this one pointed toward a mild season. Its black ends and wide rust-colored middle fit the folklore that a broader brown band means less severe weather ahead.
NOAA’s winter outlook, released Oct. 15, mostly backed that read. The forecast calls for warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the East from December through February, along with wetter-than-average conditions along the East Coast.
Vermont woolly bear on the road
The caterpillar’s markings are the reason it gets pulled into winter talk every year. Folklore says black on the ends signals cold weather at the start and end of the season, while a wider brown band points to a milder winter in between.
What the insect was actually doing on the trail was more practical. It was looking for a place to spend the winter under leaves, a log or a rock. Woolly bears freeze solid over the winter, thaw out in spring, then spin a cocoon and emerge as Isabella tiger moths.
NOAA’s East outlook
The federal forecast gives the same general direction, but for a different reason. Forecasters expect this year’s El Niño to be a strong one, and NOAA says last winter was the Northeast’s coldest since 2014-15. That makes this winter outlook especially relevant for people in the East watching for a colder turn.
NOAA also says snowfall cannot be predicted more than about a week ahead. That leaves the broad seasonal pattern in place, but not the exact snow total for any one storm or stretch of days.
Folklore and science
Scientists draw the sharpest line between the caterpillar’s appearance and the weather story attached to it. The brown band does not forecast the coming winter; it reflects the caterpillar’s past. A woolly bear turns less black and more orange each time it molts, so a wide brown band mostly means an older caterpillar.
That leaves the woolly bear and NOAA saying roughly the same thing about the season, but by different routes. The caterpillar offers a folk sign for a mild winter, while NOAA’s official outlook points to warmer-than-average conditions across much of the East and wetter weather along the coast. For Vermont, the next real test will come when December through February arrive and the season either matches the pattern or slips away from it.
