U.S. Central Command says the blockade has prevented Iran from exporting at least $25 billion worth of crude oil, a blow to oil reserves in Iran and the cash flow that has long supported the state budget. Brad Cooper said on Friday that the pressure is already reaching salaries, pensions and benefits inside the system that depends on those sales.
Cooper said in a video message posted on Friday: "The Islamic regime is clearly feeling the economic pain, and the IRGC is increasingly showing signs of greater desperation as a result." The figure is tied to crude that no longer moves freely through the shipping chain, while the final deliveries already at sea are still being paid for only through about December.
Iran and China
The remaining oil shipments primarily end up in China, which leaves Iran with a narrowing window for revenue from cargoes that were already moving before the blockade tightened. Oil sales typically make up about a third of Iran's state budget, so the loss of those exports cuts into the funding stream that also reaches the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other sectors.
U.S. Central Command also said the U.S. and its partners have frozen nearly $350 million in cryptocurrency assets. The same pressure campaign has forced the regime to withhold salaries, pensions and benefits to workers in energy, manufacturing, construction and security, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Mojtaba Khamenei and Mohsen Rezaei
The strain has also shown up in public language from inside Iran. Earlier this month, state media said Mohsen Rezaei admitted the situation is one of the most difficult periods the country has ever faced, while inflation in Iran is now near 90% and accelerating each month.
That financial squeeze is landing alongside security pressure. State media reported that at least eight members of Iran's security forces have been killed in Sistan and Baluchestan in the past three weeks, and state media also reported that retired government employees staged protests in recent weeks after they did not receive their full pensions.
How long Iran can sustain payments once the remaining crude deliveries already at sea run out is not answered, and the country is left with a narrowing set of options as the last export revenue dries up. The next test is not a speech or a slogan but whether the final oil payments really stop by December and whether the budget can absorb the loss.
