The World Meteorological Organization says Weather conditions could face an El Niño event “literally off the monitoring charts” after Tom Fletcher joined its briefing on preparedness. The outlook puts the tropical Pacific on track for sea surface temperatures up to 3.8°C above average during November 2026 to January 2027.
The organization says the current El Niño could be unprecedented in strength and is expected to peak towards the end of 2026. It also says the strongest impacts may continue well beyond the peak, keeping pressure on regions that are already exposed to flooding, drought, heat and rainfall shifts.
Tom Fletcher and the WMO outlook
Tom Fletcher, the Under Secretary-General, appeared with the World Meteorological Organization as it released the new seasonal climate outlook. The group said its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update foresees the tropical Pacific warming to 3.8°C above average, with the peak around December 2026.
The World Meteorological Organization described the event as one that could be unprecedented in strength. It also said, “El Niño will peak towards the end of 2026 but its impacts will be felt long after that.”
Regional risks from El Niño
The outlook points to wetter-than-normal conditions in parts of East Africa during the October to December rainy season. It also flags increased drought risk in Southern Africa from November, along with warmer conditions and rainfall deficits that raise heat exposure in Southeast Asia.
Elsewhere, the forecast indicates increased rainfall in Northwest US and southern parts of western South America. North America and the northern portion of the Caribbean are expected to face above normal precipitation, while parts of Central America, the southern Caribbean and the Amazon face increased drought risk.
Preparedness before the peak
The World Meteorological Organization says the window for preparedness is still open in many regions. It says a very strong El Niño can disrupt normal temperature and rainfall patterns across many regions, and that extreme weather events are already being witnessed and are expected to multiply as the event intensifies.
The same outlook adds that El Niño can compound humanitarian needs for refugees, communities living in conflict and displaced populations. Seasonal outlooks are not predictions of individual events, so the practical step now is planning for the range of likely wet, dry and hot conditions before the peak arrives and after it passes.
