The market has spoken, and it has not exactly screamed confidence — but it has still sided with Kody Steele. At -165, Steele goes into Saturday’s UFC 333 lightweight bout with Noah Gugnon as the slight betting favorite, which feels about right for a matchup that is close enough to invite debate but defined enough to tell us something useful about both men.
This is not some wide-open mismatch. It is a fight between two lightweights with strong grappling backgrounds, and that alone makes the betting line worth a second look. Steele has already had his ups and downs in the UFC after earning his contract on Dana White's Contender Series in October 2024, splitting his first two bouts. Gugnon, meanwhile, arrived with momentum after making the most of his promotional debut at UFC Belgrade in August, where he beat Milos Janicic by first-round submission.
Why Steele has the edge
There is a simple logic behind the favorite tag. Anatoly Pimentel’s view is that Steele is the more aggressive fighter, the one more likely to march opponents down and make them uncomfortable. That matters in a fight like this, because constant pressure can change the rhythm of a grappling battle in a hurry. If Steele can force that pace, he creates the kind of attritional problem that eventually breaks opponents.
That is also where the price gets interesting. A -165 line is hardly a runaway verdict, but it does suggest the market believes Steele’s forward pressure and experience against UFC-level opposition can tilt the fight his way. He has already been tested twice in the Octagon, which is no small thing compared with a debutant’s first big step. Gugnon may be dangerous, but the question is whether he has enough experience handling sustained aggression at this level.
Gugnon is live — and that is what makes this worth watching
None of this makes Gugnon a long shot in any meaningful sense. At +140, he is very much in the fight, and the numbers reflect that. His first-round submission win in August showed exactly why people are paying attention: he can make the most of grappling openings quickly, and if Steele leaves space for counters, that window could be enough.
That is the tension here. Steele is the favorite because he looks like the more proven pressure fighter. Gugnon is the underdog because he is still the fresher UFC commodity, and because a sharp grappler can spoil a favorite’s night with one clean sequence. In other words, this is not a case of the odds telling the whole story — but they do tell us that Steele is the fighter the market trusts more to impose himself.
Saturday at Etihad Arena on Yas Island in the UAE should give us a proper read on both men. If Steele walks forward and keeps Gugnon pinned under pressure, the line will look smart. If Gugnon finds the cleaner grappling sequence, it will be another reminder that a close betting favorite is still very much a vulnerable one.
