Hurricane Vance is what storm is happening right now: a powerful Category 2 storm slowly approaching Mexico. It is moving toward the southern Mexican coast, and its pace is slow enough to keep the track in play.
The storm became the 13th hurricane in the Pacific Basin this season on Friday. It is packing powerful wind gusts and life-threatening swells, with the center beginning to encounter cooler water and drier air that could limit further development.
Southern Mexican coast
Bryan Norcross, the FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist, said forecasts for slow-moving storms are prone to large errors and subject to change. That is the practical issue now for the southern Mexican coast: a storm moving this slowly can still shift strength and direction before the core reaches shore.
Hurricane Vance could still briefly strengthen. If it maintains enough strength, it is expected to approach the coast. If it weakens significantly, it could turn farther west-northwest and remain farther offshore.
Taiwan and Japan
Typhoon Champi added a second Pacific Basin weather story on Friday when it clipped northern Taiwan. It killed 1 person and injured more than 500 others, including 21 foreign nationals, after slamming Taiwan with heavy rain, powerful wind gusts and large waves.
Typhoon Champi did not make landfall in Taiwan. Significant wave heights near its center reached 68 feet, and it tied Super Typhoon Sinlaku earlier this week as the strongest storm to form in any basin this year; Super Typhoon Sinlaku had maximum sustained winds of 185 mph and gusts of 225 mph.
Pacific Basin forecast
For people watching Mexico, the immediate concern is not just strength but timing. A slow storm keeps the forecast open longer, which leaves more room for changes in where the worst wind and surge threats line up along the coast.
Typhoon Champi is forecast to weaken as it moves toward Japan this weekend and early next week, while Vance is still deciding whether it can hold enough power to reach Mexico or slip farther west-northwest and stay offshore.
