The Weather Company’s November outlook points to early November mountain snow risk in the West while keeping much of the Lower 48 warmer than average. El Niño remains part of the setup for the month, with the strongest warmth centered from the Dakotas to northern Indiana.
The map also shows the darkest red over parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Above-average temperatures extend from the Northern Plains through most of the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys and into the interior Northeast, which leaves fewer areas with a clear early-winter signal.
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
The strongest above-average temperatures cover the area from the Dakotas to northern Indiana, with slightly above-average readings spreading farther east and south into the eastern Rockies and Four Corners region, most of the Southern Plains and Southeast, and the major cities along the Interstate 95 corridor. New England, Florida, and the southern portions of Louisiana and Texas through the Rockies to the Pacific Northwest are expected to run closer to average.
That leaves the only below-average temperature zone in California and parts of Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah. For readers watching for mountain snow, that matters most in the western states where colder air is limited to smaller parts of the map rather than spreading across the Lower 48.
Lower 48 precipitation map
The precipitation side is less uniform. The vast majority of the Lower 48 should see average amounts in November, but the only below-average precipitation area is the Pacific Northwest. The soggiest stretch runs from the Gulf Coast of Texas to the Atlantic coast of Maryland, while slightly above-average precipitation extends from California and the southern portions of New Mexico and Arizona to a broad band from Texas to southern New Hampshire.
The outlook says the general winter pattern is warmer and drier in the northern tier, drier in the Midwest, and wetter across the South. Because the maps show averages, a single storm can still break the pattern for a short time; the broader signal is that November favors warmth over early-season snow across most of the country.
El Niño and November
The Weather Company says El Niño continues to play a part in the weather for the Lower 48 in November. For people in the Dakotas, northern Indiana, and other parts of the broad warm zone, that means the month starts with less evidence of winter than the calendar might suggest.
The practical takeaway is straightforward: the best chance for early November mountain snow risk sits in the western states named on the cold side of the map, especially California and portions of Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, and Utah. Outside that corridor, the forecast leans more toward mild temperatures and ordinary November precipitation than a widespread early snow pattern.
