A winter storm forecast from AccuWeather calls for the first snow of the season in the Dakotas from Sunday night to Monday night as the system shifts from rain to snow. The slow-moving storm is expected to keep producing heavy rain, severe weather and accumulating snow across a broad stretch from the Rockies to the Plains.
Bob Smerbeck, an AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist, said several inches of snow could fall over the Black Hills of South Dakota. He added that slushy accumulation can occur in Rapid City, South Dakota, especially on non-paved surfaces on Monday, when the snow is most likely to fall hardest.
Black Hills and Rapid City
Smerbeck said, “There is the potential for several inches of snow to fall over the Black Hills of South Dakota.” His forecast puts the clearest snow impacts on higher terrain first, then on lower-lying spots where temperatures can slip just enough for wet snow and slush to build on Monday.
That same northward push is expected to bring some accumulating snow from eastern Wyoming and northwestern Nebraska to part of southwestern North Dakota. Colder air should carry heavier snow from the Rockies to the Dakotas, eastern Montana and western Minnesota from Sunday night to Monday night.
Colorado and New Mexico
Brandon Buckingham, an AccuWeather Meteorologist, said, “The storm still has plenty of potency left through this weekend with additional pockets of heavy rain that can aggravate or lead to new flooding in parts of Colorado and New Mexico as well as raise the same concerns over parts of the adjacent central and southern Plains.” Fresh rain totals of 1 to 4 inches are possible from Saturday to Sunday evening, and The AccuWeather Local StormMax rainfall is 10 inches.
The greatest flooding danger will be in hilly terrain and desert locations, where flash flooding could occur if downpours linger or repeat. Mudslides are also a concern in steep terrain, and recent wildfire burn scar locations may be especially vulnerable. Major to record flooding has already occurred along portions of the San Juan River in northern New Mexico.
Plains and the Denver metro area
The storm is expected to finish on a cold and snowy note before winding down over the Plains this week, but its snow is forecast to stay mostly away from the Denver metro area and the majority of the Colorado River basin. Rain and wet snow are expected over the higher elevations of the Rockies in Colorado and Wyoming instead.
The main severe weather threat remains hail and damaging wind gusts, with a couple of brief tornadoes possible. That risk will focus on parts of New Mexico and expand to West Texas into Monday, even as the first snow of the season reaches the Dakotas.
For people in the Black Hills of South Dakota and Rapid City, Monday is the day to watch for the slushier side of this storm. For communities farther south and west, the more urgent concern stays with repeated rain, runoff and new flooding in a landscape that already has moderate to exceptional drought conditions.
