This is one of those fixtures where the form book is not doing anyone any favours if they are trying to talk up an upset. Rizespor vs Trabzonspor on Monday 26 October 2026 at 17:00 has the look of a derby shaped by momentum, and right now that momentum belongs to Trabzonspor. They arrive with three straight wins overall, three straight wins against Rizespor, and a 2-0 Europa Conference League victory over Hearts on Thursday night to keep the mood sharp and the standards high.
That matters because this is not just a neat little run. It is a pattern. Trabzonspor beat Besiktas 2-0 at Papara Park in their previous league match, and that followed a season in which Thomas Reis' side have looked more decisive than reckless, more efficient than flashy. The numbers are encouraging too: 2.0 goals per game, 16.1 attempts, 4.7 shots on goal and 54.8% possession. In a league where control often matters more than chaos, that is the profile of a team you do not want to meet when confidence is building.
Why Trabzonspor are the pick
The betting market is pointing in the same direction, with Trabzonspor priced at 1.93 for the win. That is not just a number; it is a verdict on the mismatch in current form. Rizespor, by contrast, are carrying the weight of a 2-1 away defeat to Corum FK and the much uglier detail that they have lost their last three home games. At Caykur Didi Stadyumu, that is a problem they cannot simply wave away.
The Black Sea rivalry adds plenty of edge, but it does not erase the logic. Rizespor have shown enough to suggest they can make life awkward, yet the broader trend is hard to ignore. Trabzonspor have won three in a row overall, and they have also beaten Rizespor three times in succession. That is the sort of head-to-head grip that turns a derby from a toss-up into a test of whether the underdog can survive the pressure long enough to change the story.
Confirmed lineups and what they say
Rizespor line up with Yahia Fofana; Siaka Bakayoko, Modibo Sagnan, Zakaria Ariss, Taylan Antalyali; Adedire Awokoya Mebude, Ibrahim Olawoyin, Gennaro Borrelli, Andre Onana, Wagner Pina; Chibuike Nwaiwu.
Trabzonspor go with Stefan Savic; Mustafa Eskihellac, Melih Kabasakal, Fabinho, Aral Simsir, Franculino; Ozan Tufan, Qazim Laci, Emrecan Bulut, Mohamed Salah, Ali Sowe.
And there is the real edge in the fixture: Trabzonspor look like the side with a clearer identity and the stronger current punch. Rizespor have the home crowd, the rivalry, and the opportunity to make this awkward. But at the moment, that is not enough to outweigh the evidence. Trabzonspor look the more reliable side, and the most sensible call is that they extend the run that has already made them the clear favourites.
