Tom Lee says investors are waiting until after November 3 to buy the dip. The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5% on Friday, and he said that hesitation is leaving stocks more exposed to further selling before the U.S. midterm elections pass.
“Today looks like someone’s getting liquidated,” Lee said during a CNBC interview on Friday. “But at the same time, the equal weight market is rising. So I think there still is plenty of money sloshing around.”
Lee's November 3 calendar
“Our institutional investors just don’t have conviction until after midterm,” said Lee, the Fundstrat Managing Partner. He said some investors are holding back from buying the latest stock-market dip until after next week’s U.S. midterm elections, and that a lot of people are reluctant to say they want to buy the dip right now.
“So I think between now and November 3rd, it doesn’t take a lot for stocks to fall a lot, because I just don’t know if there’s as much dip buying conviction until after November 3rd,” he said. For traders, that means the usual dip-buying support may be thinner into the vote than it has been in previous sell-offs.
Nasdaq 100's October slide
6.65% was the Nasdaq 100's decline in October, its worst month since March 2025, when it fell 7.69%. That backdrop gives Lee’s comments more weight: the index is already coming off a weak month, and he said Friday’s trading looked different from prior sell-offs.
“Because I think there’s a lot of doom-saying about the midterms,” Lee said. “I think people are going to plan to buy the dip. But as strange as it sounds, I think people are marking their calendar until November 3rd.”
Middle East, AI and tariffs
ING Think said the Middle East, AI and fiscal policy and tariffs are three areas to watch after the election. If that list becomes the market’s next focus, the pause Lee described could give way to a new round of stock selection rather than broad dip buying, with investors reassessing which parts of the market deserve fresh money after November 3.
For now, Lee’s message is narrower than a broad market call: institutional investors are waiting, some retail investors may be waiting too, and the Nasdaq 100 is already carrying the strain. That leaves the next trade less about courage than timing.
