The final ATP Masters 1000 event of the 2026 season comes with a familiar betting question: can Carlos Alcaraz turn strong recent form into a title at the Rolex Paris Masters? Zachary Cohen thinks the answer is yes. On Monday, November 2, the VSiN tennis analyst laid out his best bets and futures for Paris La Defense Arena, and his top tournament pick is Alcaraz to lift the trophy.
That call is not built on reputation alone. Cohen pointed to Alcaraz’s run to the Indian Wells semifinals in March and, more importantly, his last-week performance in Vienna, where he posted a TennisViz Performance Rating of 9.00. The numbers support the idea that the 21-year-old is arriving with the kind of form that usually travels well in Masters 1000 play. Cohen’s view is straightforward: it will take a lot more for Alcaraz to win this week, but he still expects him to get it done.
Why Alcaraz is the futures play
Cohen’s argument centers on the gap between what it takes to win a title like this and what Alcaraz is currently producing. The ceiling is obvious, but the important detail is that the floor is high too. A 9.00 TennisViz Performance Rating in Vienna suggests a player controlling matches in more than one way, not just surviving on shotmaking. In a tournament like the Rolex Paris Masters, that matters because the draw rarely gives a contender room to drift.
He also framed the issue in blunt terms: the only thing that can keep the Spaniard from winning this 1000 is the Spaniard himself. That is a strong statement, but it reflects the logic of futures betting. If Alcaraz is healthy, sharp and creating the kind of pressure he showed recently, he is the sort of player who can separate from a field that is still missing one major name.
Medvedev remains the main alternative
If there is a player Cohen’s preview treats as the biggest threat, it is Daniil Medvedev. The 2020 champion has been excellent since the US Open, going 18-3, and that kind of stretch is exactly why he remains dangerous in a late-season Masters event. Medvedev has already proven he can win this tournament, and a hot run over two months is enough to make him a live option again.
Still, the balance of the preview leans toward Alcaraz. Medvedev’s profile says stability and experience, but Alcaraz brings more explosive upside, and that combination usually drives futures decisions when the prices are close enough. Cohen’s read is that Medvedev belongs in the conversation, but not above Alcaraz.
The field thins without Sinner
One reason the Alcaraz case looks stronger is the absence of Jannik Sinner, who is out because of knee rehab. That changes the tournament shape. Removing one of the most consistent threats in the draw reduces the number of players who can force Alcaraz into a truly uncomfortable path. In a Masters 1000 setting, where margins are already tight, that absence matters more than it might in a smaller event.
Cohen did not frame the tournament as a foregone conclusion, and that is the right level of caution. Paris La Defense Arena can still punish anyone who is off for even one round. But with Alcaraz in form, Medvedev carrying momentum and the draw lacking one of its biggest names, the best futures argument on Monday, November 2, pointed toward the Spaniard.
That is the essence of the pick: not certainty, but the best blend of current form, tournament context and outright upside. In a season-ending Masters, that is often enough.
