Roughly 54 million Americans had already cast early ballots ahead of Nov. 3, giving early election results a fast-moving turnout picture before Election Day. Michael McDonald said the initial outlook points to a younger, more diverse and politically independent electorate showing up in large numbers.
Michael McDonald and the turnout surge
The University of Florida Election Lab reported the early ballot total over the weekend before Nov. 3. McDonald, who runs the lab, said the data suggest an electorate that looks different from the last cycle, and he posted on Oct. 28: "I can confidently say that the 2026 election will be the most diverse midterm electorate in U.S. history,"
That early figure came with a sharp jump from the last 2022 midterms. Eight million more people took advantage of early in-person and mail-in ballot options over the weekend than during 2022, when Republicans won control of the House during Joe Biden's term.
Ohio, Maine and Michigan
Early voting surged in places with more competitive Senate contests such as Ohio, Maine and Michigan. In Texas, more than 7.7 million people had cast early ballots, and the state had already surpassed its high mark of 40% turnout from the 2018 midterms.
David Becker said Texas's record for a midterm election is 8.3 million total ballots. He said on Nov. 1 that the state was about 600,000 ballots away from its highest turnout ever: "Their record for a midterm election is 8.3 million total. So they're just over about 600,000 or so ballots away from their highest turnout ever... Election Day hasn't even happened yet. That's remarkable,"
Texas, Michigan and the House
Texas also has a closely watched race involving James Talarico and Ken Paxton, while Michigan's Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate is Abdul El-Sayed, who defeated U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens in the primary. McDonald and others say the turnout pattern points to a broader electorate, but the size of the early vote still cannot forecast whether the House and Senate will change hands.
That leaves the ballot count as a measure of momentum, not a verdict. States release age, race and party data on different schedules and under different rules, so the picture can sharpen after Election Day without turning into a prediction of control.
