NFL's top rushing teams meet Sunday night as Cairo Santos looms for Bears in Tampa Bay test

Cairo Santos and the Bears face a huge Sunday night test as Chicago meets Tampa Bay in a battle between the NFL's top rushing teams.

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NFL's top rushing teams meet Sunday night as Cairo Santos looms for Bears in Tampa Bay test

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears meet on Sunday night in a strength-on-strength game that should put the NFL's two most productive rushing attacks under the spotlight. For Chicago, Cairo Santos may not be the headline act, but this is exactly the kind of tight, physical contest where field position and finishing drives can decide everything.

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Tampa Bay arrives in Chicago with a ground game that has become a major weapon. Over its last four games, the Buccaneers have averaged 231.3 rushing yards per game, and they showed just how dangerous that can be in Week 8 when they beat Atlanta 16-0 without completing a pass and set a franchise record with 324 rushing yards.

Ben Johnson made clear that Chicago understands the scale of the task. He said Tampa Bay's offensive line is really good, the scheme is really good, and the backs are phenomenal as well. His verdict was simple: “It's a potent, potent rushing attack.”

That is the challenge for the Bears at Soldier Field. Sunday night will tell us whether Chicago can contain a unit that has leaned into variety, heavy personnel and a strong run-game rhythm, or whether Tampa Bay can keep imposing itself on the ground as it has done in recent weeks.

Why Tampa Bay's run game has changed the picture

Baker Mayfield pointed to the Buccaneers' recent shift in approach, saying they have been riding the hot hand with the run game and have liked the 12, 13 personnel and heavier sets. That fits with the way Todd Bowles described the offense: the staff has tweaked things to match what certain players do well up front, while also tailoring runs to what the backs can do.

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Bowles also said the coaches are getting more comfortable with the players and vice versa, with everyone settling into the scheme and buying in. That kind of alignment matters in a rushing attack because timing, trust and identity often matter more than pure volume.

The numbers back up the point. Tampa Bay's recent surge has included 231.3 rushing yards per game over its last four games, a stretch that has turned the ground game into the most obvious feature of the offense.

Chicago's ground game has to respond

Chicago's rushing output has declined after a strong first four games, so the Bears enter this matchup with their own questions to answer. Johnson said the team has been a little bit spotty and admitted that first-half rushing has not been as effective as second-half rushing.

Still, he believes the breakthrough is coming. “We're too good up front not to do that,” Johnson said, making it clear he expects the Bears to find more consistency as the season goes on.

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That matters because Chicago can not afford to let Tampa Bay control the pace. The Bears will also want their own run game to stay connected to the rest of the offense after Monday night's 34-17 win at Seattle, where D'Andre Swift scored three touchdowns.

The last time these teams met, Tampa Bay beat Chicago 27-17 on Sept. 17, 2023. This time, the rematch arrives with both teams trying to prove their rushing identity can travel, hold up and decide games against quality opposition. For Chicago, including Cairo Santos in the broader picture means understanding that every possession may matter if this turns into a tight, ground-heavy battle.

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Data-driven sports analyst covering advanced metrics in baseball and basketball. Former college athlete and ESPN digital contributor.