Matt Boldy has been one of the NHL’s most reliable shot producers this season, and Tuesday’s Wild vs Canadiens matchup at the Bell Centre gives him another strong chance to stay active. With the Minnesota Wild facing a Montreal Canadiens team that has been undisciplined and vulnerable in shot suppression, Boldy is the clear player to watch for over 3.5 shots on goal.
Why Boldy stands out in this matchup
The case starts with Boldy’s volume. He is described as the NHL’s leading shot-generator, and that kind of role matters more when the matchup projects well. The Wild control 59.5% in score-adjusted xGF% across all situations, which is a strong indicator that they spend a lot of time driving play in the right direction. For a shooter like Boldy, that usually creates a steady stream of attempts and looks at the net.
His recent usage also supports the angle. Since being promoted to a loaded top line, Joel Eriksson Ek has points in 13 of 16 games, which points to how dangerous Minnesota’s best unit has been. When a top line is rolling, the shot opportunities tend to follow, and Boldy has been at the center of that production.
Why the Canadiens create the right setting
Montreal’s profile is part of the reason this looks appealing. The Canadiens are described as undisciplined and prone to spending time shorthanded, which can be a problem against a Wild team with strong power-play production. Even at five-on-five, the Canadiens have not been especially stable. Over the past 10 games, they rank 20th in 5-on-5 shot suppression, a number that suggests opposing skaters have been able to generate volume against them.
That matters for a player prop built around shots, because Boldy does not need to score to cash in on this type of line. He just needs the puck on his stick often enough to keep firing. The Canadiens’ tendency to give up chances, combined with Minnesota’s ability to control play, is the core of the matchup.
What the numbers say about Boldy
Boldy’s shot profile has remained strong even as the season has progressed. Last season, he scored in 45% of his appearances, and this season that number sits at 26%. That drop in scoring frequency does not necessarily change the shot outlook, though. If anything, it can make the shot-on-goal angle more attractive, because the volume remains the steadier part of his profile.
In a game where the Wild should have the better territorial edge and the Canadiens are likely to spend stretches defending, Boldy fits the kind of player who can build a high shot total without needing everything to break perfectly. For Tuesday’s Wild vs Canadiens matchup, that is exactly the appeal.
