Storm Charles is expected to worsen weather in Madeira late Tuesday and in mainland Portugal on Wednesday, with IPMA projecting orange-level warnings for both areas. The new depression is moving toward the Iberian Peninsula while Portugal remains under the influence of Bruna.
In Madeira, persistent rain is expected between the end of Tuesday 10th and the morning of Wednesday 11th, with more than 100 mm in 12 hours in some mountain areas. Wind gusts could reach 80 to 100 km/h, and around 130 km/h in high ground, while southwesterly waves of 3.5 to 4.5 metres are forecast on the south coast of Madeira island.
Madeira forecast for late Tuesday
IPMA says the island will be the first area to feel the deterioration, with heavy rain and strong winds arriving late Tuesday. The forecast also points to rough seas around Madeira, adding to the pressure on travel and coastal activity before the weather shifts farther east.
Charles is the third named storm of the 2026/2027 season and follows Adam. That sequence matters because Madeira is dealing with another named system before the effects of Bruna have fully faded.
Portugal mainland on Wednesday
On the mainland, gusts of around 100 to 120 km/h are expected from late Wednesday morning, with southwesterly waves of between 4 and 6 metres forecast along the coast south of Cabo Carvoeiro from Wednesday afternoon. IPMA’s orange warnings signal a moderate to high risk for the areas in the storm’s path.
The storm track remains uncertain. The core of Charles could move toward the Iberian Peninsula via the Gulf of Cadiz or between Sines and Cabo Carvoeiro, and that split in the forecast decides which stretch of coast faces the stronger winds and sea conditions.
Spain and the Iberian Peninsula
Aemet says Wednesday will be the worst day in Spain, with Thursday still unstable but less intense. The same system is moving across the Iberian Peninsula, even though the Azores archipelago is not expected to be affected by Charles.
For people in Madeira and mainland Portugal, the practical signal is simple: orange warnings are already in view, and the next forecast model updates may still adjust where the strongest impacts land. If the storm shifts toward the Gulf of Cadiz, the southern approach becomes more exposed; if it tracks between Sines and Cabo Carvoeiro, the central-western coast takes more of the wind and sea load.
