France can book a place in the UEFA Nations League quarterfinals on Thursday if it avoids defeat against Italy at San Siro.
The result gives Les Bleus a simple path through Group 1 of League A: they need only to stay unbeaten to move on from Matchday 5. Italy is still alive, but its route is much narrower. The Azzurri need a win and help from Belgium losing in order to keep their own qualification hopes alive.
The matchup also arrives with France in decent form under Zinédine Zidane. In his four-match reign, France has beaten Belgium and Türkiye, drawn with Italy and added a 4-1 win over Belgium. That run has put France in position to advance before the final matchday, without needing to chase a victory in Milan.
For Italy, the task is more complicated. The October meeting between the teams finished 1-1, which showed how little separates them on the night. But with the group situation now tighter, the stakes are higher for the return meeting at San Siro.
Mbappé remains unavailable
Kylian Mbappé was unavailable for France's recent matches because of a hamstring problem, and he is not expected to feature here either. Even without him, France has found enough consistency to put itself one result away from the quarterfinals.
That is the main storyline going into Thursday: France controls its own fate, while Italy needs both a result and outside help. For Zidane and Les Bleus, a draw would be enough to do the job.
