This is exactly the sort of Test England ought to win and still ought to fear. That is not a contradiction. It is the whole point. Maro Itoje has already put his finger on the danger before Saturday’s England vs Japan meeting at Twickenham: if England drift, if they assume this is just about turning up, they could make a routine occasion look far more awkward than it needs to be.
England are heavy favourites, of course, and history is on their side. They have never lost to Japan. But that is precisely why Itoje’s warning matters. Complacency is the one opponent that can turn a supposedly comfortable evening into a mess, and England have selected an inexperienced side for the match, with Steve Borthwick making 10 personnel changes and two positional changes after last week’s win over Australia. This is not a team built to cruise unless it is mentally switched on from the start.
Itoje’s message was blunt enough to cut through the noise. “The overarching message this week is that we need to be alive,” he said, and that is the right way to frame it. Japan do not play like most teams. Itoje made that clear too, stressing that it is “impossible to tick off every eventuality” against a side with “a very distinct way of playing” and one that is “very consistent at getting speed into the game.” In other words: forget lazy assumptions. Forget the idea that familiarity will do the job for you.
That is where Eddie Jones makes this match more interesting than the fixture list first suggests. He coached England from 2015 to 2022, gave Itoje his debut in 2016, and later took England to the 2019 World Cup final in Japan. He also knows Japan inside out, having coached them too, which gives this reunion a layer of intrigue that England would probably rather not invite. Itoje was generous about the reception Jones will get, saying he is sure the crowd will welcome him warmly, but the tactical point is much sharper than the sentiment.
Jones has long been a coach who enjoys keeping teams uneasy. Itoje said he used to “throw a whole load of weird and wonderful things” at his players to keep them sharp, while Steve Borthwick echoed the basic warning by saying you have to be alive because any mental switch-off is exactly when a quality player will punish you. That is the danger in this fixture: not the name on the shirt, but the momentary lapse that opens the door.
England have to impose themselves, not admire the occasion
There is a simple route through this for England. Itoje said it himself: “One, we need to be alive. Two, we need to impose our game.” That should be the blueprint. No drifting. No early wobble. No treating Japan as a side that will politely wait for England to find their rhythm.
England should still win this. But the point of Itoje’s warning is that favourites can embarrass themselves without ever being outclassed. If Borthwick’s reshaped side brings the same sharpness that beat Australia, England will be fine. If it does not, Twickenham could get a reminder that international rugby punishes sleepwalking faster than almost any other sport.
