The Buffalo Bills head to MetLife in Week 10 with a 7-1 record and a four-game winning streak, but Joe Brady has warned that records can mislead in this league. That is a sensible reminder before Bills Vs Jets, because New York still has the pass rush to make life uncomfortable if Buffalo gets loose with the ball.
Buffalo have been one of the league's most productive teams, averaging 32.0 points and 386.4 total yards per game, but this matchup is really about whether they can control the line of scrimmage. The Jets are 2-7, yet they still bring a pressure rate of 39.2 percent, 22 sacks and five forced fumbles into the game.
Buffalo's ground game is the key
The clearest path for the Bills is on the ground. In Week 9 in Minneapolis, James Cook carried the load with 31 rushes for 107 yards and a touchdown, and Buffalo have shown they can lean on him when the game demands it. Against a Jets defense that has given up 145 rushing yards per game, 4.6 yards per carry and 15 rushing touchdowns across ten meetings since 2021, that looks like the obvious starting point.
That history matters because New York's run defense has not been as steady as some of the broader metrics suggest. Through five weeks this season, the Jets were allowing about 118 rushing yards per game, but in the last four games before Week 10 that figure has risen to just over 140. Last Sunday, Kansas City backed that up by running for 163 yards at 5.1 yards per carry against them.
The Jets can rush the passer, but Buffalo have answers
If the Jets cannot win early against the run, the Bills are good enough to make the game look comfortable. Buffalo's recent defensive improvement also gives them a stronger platform, with the team allowing just 10 points and then 6 points in the two games since Ed Oliver returned.
That matters because it reduces the pressure on the offense to chase the game. Joe Brady can trust Buffalo to play with balance, and if the Bills can protect the ball they should be able to work through the Jets' pass rush rather than be defined by it.
Spencer Brown, James Cook and the rest of the Buffalo offense will be central to that. The Bills do not need to force a shootout if they can stay patient, keep the chains moving and make the Jets defend long drives.
Why this feels like a Bills game to lose
The concern for New York is that the numbers are pointing in two different directions. They sit 26th against the run, but their advanced profile is better, including a -0.142 EPA per rush allowed and a 30th-place ranking in rush success rate allowed at 51.5 percent. That tells you the Jets can be awkward to play against, but they can also be worn down.
Buffalo have already shown they can score in volume, and the last two weeks suggest they are also becoming harder to move the ball against on the other side. If the Bills get James Cook going and avoid the kind of breakdowns that allow pressure to change the game, this is a matchup they should expect to control.
That is why the Jets' front still matters, but so does their ability to stop the run. If they cannot do that, the Bills' balance could decide Bills Vs Jets long before the fourth quarter.
