Analyzing 4-1 NFL Teams: Bucs to Lions
The NFL has seen a significant change in the landscape of its 2025 season, with all undefeated teams eliminated after just five weeks. This development marks the first instance since 2014 that no team remains without a loss entering Week 6. With many pre-season favorites struggling, the emphasis on the season has shifted to evaluating the performance of teams with a 4-1 record.
Analyzing the 4-1 NFL Teams: From Bucs to Lions
This season, the league features seven teams with a 4-1 record, each showing varying levels of quality and performance. These teams are reviewed using DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) ratings, which serve as a comprehensive measure of team efficiency.
Key Teams and Their DVOA Ratings
- Detroit Lions: First in the DVOA ranking with a score of 45.5%, representing the fourth-best performance for a 4-1 team since 1978.
- Indianapolis Colts: Showing unexpected dominance, they are among the higher-ranked 4-1 teams.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Positioned 18th, they are noted as the ninth-worst 4-1 team ever, with a DVOA of -3.4%.
- Philadelphia Eagles: Expectedly struggling, their performance has not met preseason projections.
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Continues to underperform based on expectations.
Historical Context of 4-1 Teams
Since the NFL’s realignment in 2002, reaching a 4-1 record significantly boosts playoff chances. Of the 110 teams that have achieved this mark, 85 made it to postseason play, which is over 75% success. This statistic includes seven previous teams that advanced to 4-1 with a negative DVOA.
The Importance of a Strong Start
Starting the season with four wins provides teams with valuable leeway to address issues and improve. However, history shows that strong starts do not guarantee playoff success. For example, in 2011, the Buffalo Bills started at 4-1, only to falter drastically, finishing the season with a 6-10 record.
Potential Drop-offs for 2025 Teams
While a 4-1 start can be promising, it does not assure a smooth path forward. Historical data reveals notable drop-offs for several teams after similar starts:
| Year | Team | 4-1 DVOA | Final Record | Final DVOA | Drop-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | BUF | 20.6% | 6-10 | -9.9% | -30.5% |
| 2012 | MIN | 33.8% | 10-6 | 10.5% | -23.3% |
| 2023 | DET | 38.6% | 12-5 | 17.0% | -21.6% |
As teams prepare for the upcoming weeks, analysts will closely monitor how these seven 4-1 teams navigate the challenges ahead. Their ability to maintain or improve their performance will be crucial in determining their postseason viability.
