Trump Administration to Release Delayed Inflation Data Impacting Social Security COLA

Bassyonni

ago 7 hours

Trump Administration to Release Delayed Inflation Data Impacting Social Security COLA

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is recalling some employees to prepare for the crucial Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, despite the ongoing government shutdown. This significant data was initially set to be released on October 15. There is uncertainty about whether it will be published next week or postponed due to the shutdown.

Impact on Social Security COLA

A Trump administration official indicated that the CPI data would be available before November 1. This date is crucial as it serves as the cutoff for announcing the annual increase for Social Security payments. The September CPI data is instrumental in determining this adjustment.

Government Shutdown and Operations

Since the government funding lapsed on October 1, the BLS has suspended all operations. Per the Department of Labor’s contingency plans, only one employee has remained on full-time duty during the shutdown. This halting of activities has significantly affected data collection and analysis.

With limited staffing, the publication of critical economic metrics is at risk.
Without the September CPI data, the annual Social Security benefits increase could be jeopardized.
Social Security payments continue during the shutdown, but adjustments rely on timely CPI release.

Historical Context of Cost of Living Adjustments

Typically, seniors and individuals with disabilities benefit from an annual cost of living adjustment (COLA) designed to help them cope with inflation. This adjustment is based on inflation metrics from the third quarter, which includes September. Traditionally, the Social Security Administration announces the COLA amount shortly after the BLS publishes the September CPI.

Over 74 million individuals depend on monthly Social Security payments. Last year’s adjustment was 2.5%, a decrease compared to the adjustments in the prior two years amidst declining inflation in 2024. The Social Security Administration has not yet disclosed when it will announce the COLA for 2026.