Oklahoma vs Texas Predictions: Red River Rivalry 2025 Lines, Key Matchups, and Best Bets at the Cotton Bowl

A fresh chapter of the Red River Rivalry unfolds in Dallas today, with Oklahoma riding top-six momentum and Texas leaning on Arch Manning’s first rivalry start in the Cotton Bowl cauldron. The line has hovered around a field goal with Texas a slight favorite, but the day’s biggest swing factor arrived pre-kick: Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer has been cleared, restoring the Sooners’ full dual-threat playbook. With a low total in the mid-40s, oddsmakers are signaling a field-position game in which red-zone execution, quarterback runs, and hidden yards decide it late.

Oklahoma vs Texas Game Time and TV

• Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. CT

• Stadium: Cotton Bowl, Dallas

• TV: ABC

Why the Market is Tight: Mateer’s Return vs Manning’s Debut

Mateer’s availability narrows the margin for error. Oklahoma’s offense gains designed QB keepers, RPOs that pin second-level defenders, and movement throws that reduce pressure. That stresses a Texas defense that prefers to win with its front and keep two safeties deep. If the Longhorns are forced to allocate a spy on Mateer, Oklahoma’s intermediate crossers open up.

For Texas, this is about Manning managing chaos. He doesn’t need hero ball; he needs efficient answers versus simulated pressure—hots to the slot, tight-end option routes, and timely scrambles that turn third-and-6 into first downs. The Longhorns’ best version stays on schedule and finishes drives; the flawed version settles for field goals and drifts into obvious passing downs where Oklahoma’s leverage discipline shines.

Key Matchups That Swing the Spread

• QB Run Game on Both Sides: Designed keepers are the cleanest antidote to aggressive fronts. If either team averages 5+ yards on QB carries, it tilts both time of possession and the explosives ledger.

• Texas Tackles vs OU Edge Setting: Quick-game rhythm is Texas’ pressure relief. If the Sooners reroute slants and bubble action early, the Longhorns face longer third downs—where OU’s disguise game thrives.

• Red-Zone Play Calling: With a total in the mid-40s, four-point plays matter. Field goals won’t keep pace if the other side converts 60%+ of red-zone trips into touchdowns.

• Special Teams & Cotton Bowl Wind: Short fields have flipped this rivalry before. Punt direction, fair-catch choices, and a late 45-yard field goal attempt could be decisive.

Trend Meter: What the Numbers Suggest

• Total bias: Multiple recent Sooners games have slanted Under, and the market’s modest total reflects respect for both defenses and the rivalry’s early nerves.

• Side bias: The spread tightening around a coin flip reflects Mateer’s status; any live in-game movement will track QB health and early pass protection.

Betting Snapshot

How It Likely Plays Out

Expect an opening quarter heavy on diagnostics: formations to identify coverage rules, motion to test run fits, and selective shot plays. Texas will prioritize protection and quick answers for Manning; Oklahoma will probe the edges with Mateer to force linebackers into conflict. The middle quarters should compress into field position, where one special teams play—or one fourth-and-short decision—carries outsized weight.

Texas owns the higher ceiling if it protects well and finishes drives. But with Mateer cleared and Oklahoma’s defense more consistent snap-to-snap, the Sooners own the slimmer margin for error—especially if they win the turnover battle and keep Manning behind the chains.

Best Bets & Final Prediction

• Best Bets: Oklahoma + points; Under 44–45; sprinkle first-half Under.

• Player Angle: QB rushing props for both passers merit a look given scheme tendencies and short-yardage leverage.

• Projected Score: Oklahoma 23, Texas 20.

It won’t be pretty, and that’s exactly the kind of game Oklahoma wants. A late Texas drive stalls in the fringe red zone, and the Sooners’ situational defense—plus Mateer’s legs—deliver a rivalry win by a field goal.