Seahawks vs. Jaguars prediction: Week 6 line swings, injury crunch, and the matchup levers that matter

Seattle (3–2) visits Jacksonville (4–1) today in a sneaky heavyweight undercard: two winning teams, one cross-country trip, and a betting market that’s bounced between either side as a 1.5-point favorite with a total hovering around 47.5. It’s a referendum on Seattle’s revamped offense under Sam Darnold and Jacksonville’s turnover-hunting defense that’s driven a hot start.

Kickoff, TV window, and what’s at stake

The game kicks at 1:00 p.m. ET (10:00 a.m. PT) from EverBank Stadium on FOX with limited national distribution despite both records. Beyond the optics, it’s big for both standings pictures: Seattle trying to keep pace in the NFC West, Jacksonville protecting early control of the AFC South while closing a three-game home stand with momentum.

The chessboard: Darnold’s risk management vs. Jacksonville’s ball hawks

Sam Darnold has been the antithesis of his early-career reputation—on-schedule, efficient, and light on turnover-worthy throws. That discipline is the first lever in this matchup because Jacksonville’s identity has been takeaways and short fields. If Darnold continues to throw on time and force the Jaguars to drive the length of the field, Seattle neutralizes Jacksonville’s most consistent edge.

Protection is the companion key. Seattle’s pass pro has held up well enough to feature the intermediate game, but Josh Hines-Allen’s pressure profile and Travon Walker’s power can tilt downs. Expect Seattle to lean on quick-game metrics—speed-outs, slants, and running backs on check-releases—to keep Darnold clean and stay in favorable second/third downs.

Where Jacksonville attacks: depleted Seahawks secondary

Seattle’s injury stack in the secondary is the second lever—and it favors Jacksonville. With starting outside corner depth thinned and safety availability in flux, Trevor Lawrence should be green-lit to test the perimeter early. Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. has flashed vertical separation the last two weeks, while Travis Hunter has added an explosive touch as a developing downfield option. Those two, paired with Evan Engram’s option routes, give Jacksonville three different stress points against zone and match coverages. Look for Jacksonville to hunt isolated linebackers with Engram on third down and take two or three shot plays off play-action to Thomas/Hunter.

The ground game: Etienne’s volume vs. Seattle’s front

Jacksonville’s run game is less about five-yard clouds and more about sequencing: Travis Etienne’s perimeter pace forces wider run fits, which sets up RPOs and glance routes. Seattle’s interior has been stout enough to discourage the straight-ahead stuff, so Jacksonville’s best bet is to attack edges—toss/jet looks, outside zone, and screens—to tire the front and manufacture YAC for Etienne. If the Seahawks keep explosive runs in check and win on first down, the Jaguars will have to live in Lawrence’s arm—and that’s fine, but it narrows the playbook.

X-factors and tendencies

• Field position: Jacksonville’s takeaway surge has juiced its average starting field position; if that cools, expect longer fields and a lower-scoring script than the market implies.

• Seattle WR usage: With Darnold distributing, Seattle has thrived on progression-based throws and crossers. If Jacksonville’s corners can reroute at the line and force late-down heroics, the advantage swings to the rush.

• Red zone: Seattle’s play-action boot game near the goal line has been crisp; Jacksonville offsets that with condensed-field zone eyes that drive on throws underneath.

Betting lens & final pick

Market snapshot (as of this morning): spread toggling around ±1.5 either way; total ~47.5. That volatility reflects two competing truths: Seattle’s efficiency with Darnold vs. Jacksonville’s defense thriving on takeaways and a favorable home spot.

My numbers lean Jaguars -1 on home/secondary-injury context with a micro-edge to the under if takeaways don’t gift short fields. Jacksonville’s ability to isolate Seattle’s banged-up back end should produce two explosive pass plays that decide it.

Prediction: Jaguars 26, Seahawks 23
Lean: Jaguars -1.5 (to -2), Under 47.5 in non-turnover scripts.