Republicans Test Trump Voter Turnout in New Jersey Election Without Him
In New Jersey, Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli is gearing up for a crucial gubernatorial race. This election represents a significant opportunity for the GOP, particularly in rallying Donald Trump’s voter base without the former president on the ballot. The election is set to take place in just three weeks and will primarily test the party’s ability to mobilize Trump loyalists in the state.
Key Details of the Upcoming Election
- Candidatate: Jack Ciattarelli
- Election Date: Three weeks from the date of reporting
- Trump’s Endorsement: Ciattarelli is the only gubernatorial candidate endorsed by Trump.
- State Elections: New Jersey and Virginia are the only states holding governor’s races this year.
Importance of Trump Voters
Republicans have historically struggled with voter turnout in off-year elections. Ciattarelli’s campaign acknowledges that converting a fraction of Trump voters could be crucial for his success. According to New Jersey GOP strategist Mike DuHaime, Trump garnered approximately 700,000 more votes in 2024 than Ciattarelli received in 2021. “If you can turn out 100,000 of those, that could be the difference,” he stated.
Despite this emphasis on Trump’s base, there is a delicate balancing act. Independent voters are influential in New Jersey, where Trump lost them by 6 points in 2024. Strategy must consider how to engage Trump supporters without alienating this crucial demographic.
Campaign Strategies and National Engagement
| Organization | Ad Spending |
|---|---|
| Restore NJ (Republican Governors Association) | $11.3 million |
| Democratic Governors Association | $26.5 million |
The Republican National Committee (RNC) has also been proactive, organizing volunteer initiatives and legal resources to ensure election integrity. Local efforts in New Jersey include targeted outreach through the RNC’s “VotePro” digital mobilization tool.
Ciattarelli’s Position on Trump
Ciattarelli’s relationship with Trump has evolved. Initially critical, he is now an outspoken supporter. He has expressed that he aligns with many of Trump’s policies while also trying to establish his own identity as a gubernatorial candidate. This approach became evident during his recent debate with Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill, where he hesitated to fully embrace the MAGA movement, instead framing his focus on changing New Jersey itself.
As Ciattarelli seeks to harness the enthusiasm of Trump voters, his campaign has been actively visiting urban areas where Trump saw gains in the past election. It remains to be seen whether Trump will campaign for Ciattarelli or if they will be able to work together effectively before Election Day.
Challenges Ahead for Ciattarelli
Ciattarelli’s path to victory is fraught with challenges. Engaging Trump’s base while retaining support from moderate Republicans and independents requires careful navigation. “It’s a difficult trick,” remarked DuHaime, highlighting the complexities of winning as a Republican in New Jersey.
As the race unfolds, Ciattarelli’s strategies will be crucial for mobilizing voters and determining the GOP’s performance in a blue-leaning state that has not elected a Republican governor since 2010.
