NOAA’s New Winter Forecast for the U.S.: Warmer, Drier South; Wetter North as La Niña Shapes Dec–Feb 2025–26
NOAA’s freshly issued U.S. Winter Outlook points to a classic La Niña footprint for December through February: a stronger tilt toward warmer, drier conditions across the southern tier and cooler, stormier risks from the Pacific Northwest through the northern tier and Great Lakes. While the event is expected to be on the weak side, its atmospheric nudge is strong enough to shift odds for temperature, precipitation, and drought across large swaths of the country.
La Niña Returns—And Sets the Pattern
La Niña—cooler-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the central/eastern tropical Pacific—tends to buckle the jet stream northward over the West and across the northern states, shuttling Pacific storms into the Northwest and occasionally diving cold into the north-central U.S. In parallel, the southern tier often sits under a more suppressed storm track, skewing warmer and drier. NOAA’s outlook leans into that historical signal while acknowledging year-to-year variability and the warming background climate.
Temperature Outlook: Broad Warm Tilt, Northern “Cooler-Risk” Pockets
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Warm favored: Much of the Southwest, southern Plains, Gulf Coast, and Southeast show increased chances of above-normal temperatures. Odds also favor warmth along parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southern California/Desert Southwest.
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Closer to normal or cooler-risk zones: The Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Upper Midwest, and northern New England see less dominant warmth, with some areas carrying a slight lean toward cooler outcomes when amplified troughs drop south. These are not guarantees of a cold winter—just higher odds of colder spells relative to the rest of the country.
What this means: Expect more frequent warm spells across the South and an overall reduced demand for heating there. In the northern tier, swings are likely—periods of seasonable to colder air punctuating otherwise mild stretches, especially when Pacific storms phase with Arctic intrusions.
Precipitation Outlook: Storm Track Favors North; Southern Tier Dries Out
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Wetter favored: Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, continuing across parts of the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Repeated Pacific systems should deliver frequent rain at lower elevations and mountain snow in the West.
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Drier favored: Southern California and the Southwest, the southern Plains, Gulf Coast, and stretches of the Southeast/Florida lean drier, with fewer widespread storm systems penetrating the region.
Snow note: NOAA’s seasonal outlook does not predict snowfall totals. However, where precipitation odds are higher in the North—and if timely cold shots arrive—Great Lakes lake-effect bursts and interior mountain snows could be notable. Conversely, many southern snow “surprises” tend to be one-off events that seasonal outlooks can’t resolve months ahead.
Drought and Water: Diverging Paths North vs. South
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Improvement potential: Repeated storms bring a shot at drought improvement or stabilization across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with benefits for water supply where mountain snowpack builds.
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Expansion risk: The Southwest, southern Plains, Gulf Coast, and Florida face a higher risk of drought development or intensification, given the warm/dry tilt. Winter is the recharge season for soils and reservoirs across much of the South; underperformance could have knock-on effects into spring 2026.
Regional Takeaways at a Glance
| Region | Temperatures | Precipitation | Quick Take |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pacific Northwest & Northern Rockies | Near-normal to cooler risk at times | Wetter favored | Frequent Pacific storms; solid mountain snow chances |
| Northern Plains & Upper Midwest | Variable; periodic cold shots | Wetter favored | Storm track active; potential for impactful winter storms |
| Great Lakes & Ohio Valley | Near/above normal with swings | Wetter favored | Lake-effect bursts possible; more frequent storm passages |
| Northeast & Northern New England | Mixed; brief cold interludes | Near to slightly wetter | Storm track proximity; coastal systems possible |
| Southwest & Southern California | Warmer favored | Drier favored | Sparse storm frequency; water supply concerns linger |
| Southern Plains to Gulf Coast | Warmer favored | Drier favored | Drought risk grows; wildfire risk can spike on dry, warm stretches |
| Southeast & Florida | Warmer favored | Drier favored | Fewer soaking systems; watch early-spring fire danger |
How Firm Is the Outlook?
Seasonal outlooks tilt the odds, not daily weather. A weak La Niña lends recognizable tendencies—wetter North, drier South—but doesn’t lock in week-to-week outcomes. Two wildcards to watch:
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Arctic air delivery—brief but sharp cold waves can still puncture a generally mild pattern; and
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Pacific jet fluctuations—at times it can roar (wet Northwest), then relax (quiet stretches), shifting storminess eastward in bursts.
What This Means for You
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Northern tier: Prepare for more frequent storms and travel disruptions, especially near the Great Lakes and interior West. Snow gear and flood-readiness in river basins with repeated systems are prudent.
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Southern tier: Expect higher winter energy bills for cooling rarely, but lower heating demand overall; the bigger story is dryness—plan for water conservation, landscaping stress, and elevated fire weather on windy, warm periods.
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Businesses & municipalities: Calibrate snow/ice budgets in the North and drought/wildfire mitigation in the South; monitor reservoir/snowpack dashboards through mid-winter for water-supply updates.
NOAA’s new winter forecast points to a textbook, if modest, La Niña winter—stormier to the north, leaner to the south—with enough variability to keep forecasters and travelers on their toes.
