NOAA Releases Updated U.S. Winter Forecast: Key Insights Revealed

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2025-2026 winter forecast, highlighting significant seasonal variations across the United States. This outlook covers the months of December, January, and February, detailing temperature and precipitation trends influenced by the current La Niña phase.

Key Insights into the 2025-2026 Winter Forecast

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has predicted warmer-than-average temperatures for much of the contiguous U.S. However, the southern states are likely to face a mix of dry and warm conditions this winter.

• Southern States: Warmer and drier than average.
• Northern States: Cooler and wetter conditions expected.

Impact of La Niña

The forecast aligns with the transition into La Niña, which is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle. This cycle can significantly affect weather patterns across North America.

• La Niña brings drought to southern regions.
• It typically causes flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada.

Forecasters anticipate La Niña will persist until February 2026 before reverting to a neutral phase with the arrival of spring.

Precipitation Predictions

While NOAA’s report does not specify snowfall predictions, it does indicate increased overall precipitation.

• Pacific Northwest: Above-normal precipitation expected.
• Northern California: To experience similar wet conditions.
• Northern Rockies, Great Plains, and Western Great Lakes: Anticipating heavy precipitation.

Regional Outlooks

Along with these predictions, the southern half of the U.S. is likely to see drier than normal conditions.

• Southwest: Drier than average.
• Southeast and Southern Texas: Courses with low precipitation levels predicted.

In addition to the continental forecast, NOAA’s report addresses winter expectations for other regions such as Alaska. Northwestern parts of Alaska are projected to have a warmer winter, whereas the panhandle may experience cooler temperatures.

Precipitation in western Alaska is expected to be above average, contrasting with below-average levels in the panhandle area. Specific forecasts for the Hawaiian islands will be provided separately.