Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba for the Vacant Strawweight Title: High-Level Grappling Headlines UFC 321

Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba run it back on Saturday, October 25, with the UFC women’s strawweight championship up for grabs in Abu Dhabi. The belt is vacant after a recent reshuffle at the top, and this rematch gives two elite grapplers a rare chance to reset the division overnight. Expect momentum swings, high-wire scrambles, and tactical adjustments born from five years of evolution since their first meeting.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba: What’s Changed Since 2020

When they met in December 2020, Dern edged a gritty unanimous decision, winning key moments on the feet while neutralizing prolonged ground danger. Since then, both have sharpened their identities. Dern (15–5) is still a submission menace with the division’s most taps on her résumé, but she’s added strength, better clinch entries, and clearer shot selection. She’s also been candid about shoring up her takedown defense and decision-making—areas that cost her rounds in past losses.

Jandiroba (22–3) has surged on a five-fight run highlighted by dominant grappling and improved top control. Her recent ledger features decisive wins over ranked opposition and an armbar that reaffirmed her finishing instincts. At 37, she brings veteran composure and an economy of movement that keeps her fresh late.

Tale of the Tape: Dern vs. Jandiroba

• Records: Dern 15–5; Jandiroba 22–3

• Age: Dern 32; Jandiroba 37

• Height/Reach: Dern 5'4" / 63"; Jandiroba 5'3" / 64"

• Stylistic core: World-class BJJ for both; Dern’s edge in dynamic transitions vs. Jandiroba’s methodical pressure and control

• Momentum: Dern enters with recent form and a visible physical transformation; Jandiroba rides a five-fight streak and 14 career submissions

Keys to Victory for Mackenzie Dern

Punches to positions. Dern doesn’t need to dominate striking—she needs to land straight shots to force reactive clinches and set up trips rather than shoot from distance. When she leads behind the jab and right hand, takedown opportunities appear without exposing her hips.

Layered submissions, not single shots. Against a black-belt peer, first attempts rarely stick. Dern’s best work comes from chaining—armbar to triangle to back take—until grips break.

Wall-walk awareness. Jandiroba excels pinning opponents to the fence and mat. Dern must use the cage to stand immediately, posting before frames soften. Surviving two minutes stuck underneath could swing tight rounds.

Keys to Victory for Virna Jandiroba

Make it a positional grind. Jandiroba’s advantage grows with every completed takedown and mat return. Half-guard pressure, shoulder-heavy control, and smart wrist rides drain Dern’s explosiveness and mute scrambles.

Kick carefully, counter often. Low kicks can slow Dern’s entries, but naked kicks risk catches. Jandiroba should favor counters—slipping the right hand to level change—over leading extended combinations.

Championship pacing. Five rounds reward patience. Jandiroba’s steady, low-error approach can bank control time and turn Dern’s hunt for submissions into a scoreboard deficit.

Why the Strawweight Stakes Matter

Some have downplayed the stakes given the belt opened via vacancy, but this matchup can jolt a division in transition. The winner not only claims gold; she also establishes a style benchmark for incoming challengers. Potential next names include relentless wrestlers and kickboxers with stout takedown defense—matchups that will test whether the new champion’s path to control is sustainable across title defenses.

Strategic X-Factors

1) First takedown success rate. If Dern lands early, she can threaten from top before sweat and timing narrow windows. If Jandiroba plants her first entry, the fight may tilt toward long stretches of half-guard control.

2) Elbows in the pocket. Dern’s best striking moments against high-level grapplers often come from tight elbows exiting clinches. Damage optics matter in close rounds.

3) Ref breaks and resets. A quick stand-up favors Dern’s momentum game; longer leeway on the mat benefits Jandiroba’s accumulation strategy.

Start Time and Location

• Date: Saturday, October 25

• Venue: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi

• Prelims: 10:00 a.m. ET / 3:00 p.m. BST

• Main card: 2:00 p.m. ET / 7:00 p.m. BST
  Times are subject to change.

Prediction Lens

The margins are razor-thin. Dern owns the higher volatility—one scramble can end it. Jandiroba brings the steadier round-banking blueprint. Early success determining where the fight is held likely decides the belt. If Dern forces chaotic exchanges and keeps attempts chained, a late submission or 48–47 scorecard is live. If Jandiroba flattens the pace with disciplined rides and patient strikes, her path to a decision grows with each reset to the mat.

Either way, Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba is poised to crown a new champion and set the stylistic tone for the next era at 115 pounds.