Hurricane Melissa intensifies toward Jamaica: slow-moving threat with major surge and catastrophic flooding risk

Hurricane Melissa strengthened over the central Caribbean late Saturday, October 25 (local time), setting up a dangerous, multi-day strike on Jamaica and severe flooding across parts of Hispaniola. The slow forward speed compounds the hazard: prolonged bands of torrential rain, destructive winds as the core nears land, and life-threatening storm surge along south- and east-facing coasts.

Current status and track: Jamaica under hurricane warning

• Intensity: Category 1 as of Saturday night with sustained winds near 90 mph (150 km/h).

• Location & motion: Roughly 130 miles (210 km) southeast of Kingston, drifting generally west at walking pace—enough to keep hurricane-force conditions and extreme rain parked over the same areas for many hours.

• Warnings: A hurricane warning is in effect for Jamaica. Hurricane watches extend to portions of eastern Cuba and southwestern Haiti, with additional tropical storm alerts in surrounding waters.

• Outlook (Sun–Tue): Rapid intensification remains likely. Melissa could reach major hurricane strength (Category 3+) by late Sunday into Monday and may peak near Category 4 while approaching or crossing Jamaica. After Jamaica, a turn toward eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas/Turks and Caicos is possible in the mid-week period. Forecast details may shift as the core reorganizes.

Impacts at a glance: what to expect and where

Rainfall and flooding

• Jamaica: Widespread 10–25 inches (250–640 mm) with locally 30–40 inches (760–1,015 mm) in mountainous terrain. High likelihood of catastrophic flash flooding and major landslides, especially on south- and east-facing slopes.

• Haiti (Tiburon peninsula and southern ranges): 12–35 inches (300–890 mm) possible, with rapid, dangerous rises on rivers and mudslide risk in saturated hillsides.

• Dominican Republic (southwest) & eastern Cuba: Bands of heavy rain producing flash flooding and mudslides, greatest risk near higher elevations.

Storm surge and coastal hazards

• Jamaica (southern and eastern coasts): Large, destructive surge potentially up to 10–13 feet (3–4 m) above normal tide levels near and east of landfall, with battering waves and severe coastal erosion.

• Marine conditions: Extremely dangerous seas in the Caribbean passages; small craft should remain in port.

Wind

• Core winds: Hurricane-force gusts capable of widespread power outages, structural damage to weaker buildings, and downed trees where the eyewall or strongest bands come ashore.

• Gradient winds: Tropical-storm-force gusts will extend well beyond the center, bringing hazardous travel and intermittent outages far from the track line.

Preparedness checklist for Jamaica and nearby islands

Before conditions deteriorate (today)

• Charge phones, power banks, and critical medical devices; photograph important documents.

• Move vehicles to higher ground; secure propane tanks, satellite dishes, and rooftop water heaters.

• Clear drains and gutters; relocate valuables from ground floors; pre-stage towels/sandbags at doorways.

• Identify the nearest shelter and routes that avoid low crossings; coordinate with neighbors who may need assistance.

• For coastal communities: know your surge zone. If local officials urge relocation from exposed shorelines or flood-prone areas, go early.

As winds increase

• Stay indoors and away from windows. Do not venture outside during lulls; the eye can be followed by a sudden shift to destructive onshore winds.

• Keep refrigerators closed; conserve battery power; avoid driving across flooded roads—turn around, don’t drown.

• If you live near steep slopes or known slide areas, be prepared to move to a safer interior room or higher location at the first signs of earth movement or cracking sounds.

Travel, power, and communications

• Air travel: Jamaica’s main international airport has suspended operations ahead of peak impacts, with additional closures possible elsewhere as conditions worsen. Reopening will depend on runway assessments, debris removal, and power restoration.

• Power & water: Expect extended outages where the core tracks; water service can be disrupted by line breaks and contamination. Fill tubs and containers now.

• Connectivity: Cellular networks may degrade during peak winds. Share your location and plans with family before service drops.

What could change—and what won’t

• Track wiggles matter. A shift of 25–50 miles in the centerline will meaningfully change where the strongest winds and highest surge occur around Jamaica’s coast, but the extreme rainfall threat is widespread regardless due to Melissa’s slow movement.

• Intensity trend is still upward. Warm waters and favorable upper-level winds support additional strengthening until interaction with land and internal eyewall cycles introduce fluctuations.

Next 72 hours: key milestones to watch

• Sunday (Oct 26, local): Rapid intensification signs—shrinking eye, rising winds, sharper pressure falls. Outer bands reach Jamaica with squalls and building surf.

• Late Sunday night–Monday: Core nears or crosses Jamaica; worst surge and wind damage window. Life-threatening freshwater flooding peaks.

• Tuesday–Wednesday: System lifts toward eastern Cuba and then possibly the southeastern Bahamas/Turks and Caicos; heavy rain and strong winds spread along the new path while Jamaica transitions into rescue and early recovery.

Hurricane Melissa is a high-end flood and surge event in the making with dangerous winds on top—made worse by its slow speed. If you are in Jamaica or southern Hispaniola, complete preparations now and be ready to shelter in place through multiple high-impact periods. Conditions and official guidance will evolve through the day; stay alert to local emergency instructions and be prepared to act quickly.