Hurricane Melissa: Rapid Intensification Likely as Tropical Storm Becomes a Hurricane in the Caribbean

Hurricane Melissa strengthened from a tropical storm on Saturday, with forecasters warning of a rapid ramp-up in the next 24–36 hours. The system is already unleashing dangerous flooding across parts of the Greater Antilles and is expected to trend toward major-hurricane intensity as it approaches Jamaica and southern Hispaniola. Travel and marine interests across the northwest Caribbean should be ready for swift changes through Sunday night.

Where Hurricane Melissa Is Right Now

As of Saturday evening (Oct. 25), Melissa is a Category 1 hurricane over the central Caribbean Sea. Satellite and aircraft data indicate a more organized core with very cold cloud tops wrapping around a developing eye—classic signals that the storm is entering a period of rapid intensification. A deep moisture plume on the storm’s east and south flanks continues to feed torrential rain into portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

Track and Timing: Key Windows to Watch

Forecast guidance keeps Melissa on a west-northwest track through Sunday, then bending slightly northwest early next week. While exact landfall points remain uncertain, confidence is high on the broader timeline:

• Saturday night (Oct. 25): Intensification phase underway; hurricane-force gusts and squalls expand outward from the center over the central Caribbean.

• Sunday (Oct. 26): Passage near or over Jamaica most likely, with the risk window centered on afternoon/evening local time. Melissa is expected to be a major hurricane (Category 3+) by this stage.

• Late Sunday night–Monday (Oct. 26–27): Track carries the core toward eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage. Impacts spread into the Cayman area and the southeast Bahamas/Turks and Caicos thereafter.

• Midweek: The storm’s longer-range fate (Gulf vs. western Atlantic recurvature) hinges on steering from an approaching trough; confidence is lower beyond 72 hours.

Note: Small wobbles in the track can dramatically change local outcomes. Treat the forecast cone as a zone of risk, not a precise line.

Alerts and Areas of Greatest Concern

• Hurricane conditions: Jamaica has the highest probability of experiencing sustained hurricane winds on Sunday. Parts of eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage area could follow late Sunday into Monday.

• Life-threatening flooding: Southern Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) and Jamaica face the most acute flash-flood and landslide risk through at least Monday.

• Coastal surge: Onshore winds and large, battering waves can produce dangerous storm surge, especially along south- and southwest-facing coasts exposed to the core.

Local authorities will refine watches and warnings as the track sharpens. Heed all guidance from emergency managers.

Expected Impacts from Hurricane Melissa

Rainfall and flooding

• Widespread 8–16 inches with localized 20–25 inches possible in terrain-enhanced bands across southern Hispaniola and Jamaica.

• Rapid rises on small rivers and streams, mud/rock slides in mountainous areas, and urban flash flooding are likely. Overnight downpours can be especially hazardous.

Wind

• Escalation to major-hurricane winds (Category 3+) is possible by Sunday. Destructive gusts can down trees, power lines, and produce long-duration outages—especially near the eyewall and in higher elevations.

Storm surge and surf

• Surge heights vary by coastline shape and timing, but dangerous inundation above normally dry ground is possible in areas of onshore flow. Large, life-threatening surf and rip currents extend well beyond the center.

Tornado/mesovortex risk

• Outer rainbands may spin up brief tornadoes or tornadic waterspouts, mainly to the right of the track.

Preparedness Checklist (Before Tropical Storm Melissa Becomes Stronger)

• Finalize supplies: At least 3 days of water, food, meds, infant/elder needs, and battery power.

• Power and comms: Charge devices; prep backup battery packs; document key contacts.

• Secure property: Clear drains, tie down loose items, park vehicles away from flood-prone spots or trees.

• Plan for water: Expect potable water interruptions after prolonged outages—fill tubs and containers now.

• Know your zone: If you live in a surge-prone or landslide-risk area, identify the nearest higher ground or shelter and move early if advised.

• Boat/shore interests: Move vessels to safe harbor; avoid piers and jetties—conditions deteriorate quickly ahead of the core.

What Could Change Next

Two factors will dictate the Sunday–Monday outcome:

1. Core structure—a clean, closed eyewall favors rapid strengthening; any dry-air intrusion or land interaction could slow it.

2. Timing of the mid-latitude trough—a stronger, earlier trough would tug Melissa more northward; a slower pattern allows added time over very warm water.

Recent updates indicate Melissa is likely beginning rapid intensification. If the trend continues, wind and surge hazards may increase on short notice. Treat all official updates as time-sensitive, and be ready to act if the track shifts closer to your community.