Jamaica hurricane warning: Melissa intensifies, life-threatening floods and days of impact expected

Jamaica is under a hurricane warning as Hurricane Melissa rapidly strengthens just southeast of the island, setting up a multi-day emergency marked by destructive winds, dangerous storm surge and catastrophic flooding. As of late Saturday, October 25 (local time), Melissa’s sustained winds were near 90 mph and forecasters warned of rapid intensification into a major hurricane—with the potential to reach Category 4 strength—before, during and after its closest approach.

Jamaica hurricane outlook: timeline and core hazards

• Timing: Tropical-storm conditions are expected to begin within 24–36 hours, with hurricane conditions increasingly likely late Sunday through Tuesday (Oct. 26–28). The storm is moving very slowly—a key reason impacts may last several days.

• Rainfall and flooding: Widespread totals of 15–25 inches are possible across Jamaica, with localized 30–40 inches in mountainous terrain. Life-threatening flash floods and landslides are likely, especially along south- and east-facing slopes.

• Storm surge: Along exposed southern and eastern coasts, surge heights up to 10–13 feet above normal tide levels are possible near and east of the center, accompanied by destructive waves. Low-lying coastal communities face significant inundation.

• Wind: If Melissa attains major-hurricane intensity near Jamaica, gusts well over 100 mph could down trees, damage roofs, and cause prolonged power outages. Structural risks increase for homes not built to recent wind standards.

• Seas and marine conditions: Extremely dangerous seas will persist well beyond the center’s passage. All small craft should remain in port.

At a glance: expected progression (subject to change)

Why Hurricane Melissa is especially dangerous for Jamaica

Two factors magnify the threat:

1. Slow forward speed. A crawling track keeps intense rainbands parked over the same parishes, dramatically raising totals and landslide risk.

2. Potential for rapid intensification. Very warm Caribbean waters and supportive atmospheric conditions could drive Melissa to major hurricane strength near the island, increasing wind and surge damage while the storm lingers.

Recent reports already confirm deadly flooding in parts of Hispaniola, underscoring the regional scale of Melissa’s moisture and the risk Jamaica now faces.

Preparedness checklist for residents and businesses

• Shelter plans: Know the nearest official shelter and multiple routes to reach it. If you live in low-lying or coastal surge zones, plan to relocate before conditions deteriorate.

• Power & comms: Fully charge phones and power banks; store printed contact lists. Expect multi-day outages; conserve device power once winds increase.

• Water & food: Minimum 3–5 days of potable water (at least 1 gallon per person per day) and shelf-stable food. Include infant/elderly needs.

• Medical needs: Refill prescriptions now. Prepare a go-bag with medications, first-aid kit, and essential documents sealed in waterproof bags.

• Home safety: Clear drains and gullies; secure loose outdoor items; reinforce doors and windows. Move vehicles from flood-prone areas.

• Travel & marine: Airports and ports may suspend operations with little notice. All boating should cease; fishermen should secure gear immediately.

Government actions and community posture

Authorities have opened shelters, pre-positioned supplies, and urged the public to complete preparations. With a warning in effect, emergency services may suspend response during peak winds; communities should be ready to shelter in place until conditions improve. Local advisories may expand to include evacuation guidance for surge-vulnerable coasts—monitor official channels continuously.

What could change—and what won’t

• Track wobble: Small shifts can dramatically change which parishes face the worst surge and wind. Do not focus solely on the center line; hazards extend far from the eye.

• Intensity curve: There is a credible path to Category 4 strength; even if Melissa peaks just offshore, rainfall-driven flooding remains a high-confidence, severe hazard.

• Duration: Regardless of exact track, the storm’s slow pace means flooding and access problems could persist well into mid-week.

the Jamaica hurricane threat

Hurricane Melissa presents a high-end, multi-hazard emergency for Jamaica: dangerous surge along southern and eastern coasts, devastating rainfall with landslides in the interior and Blue Mountains, and potentially major-hurricane winds. Complete preparations today, move to safer ground if you are in flood or surge zones, and be ready for extended disruptions to power, water, and transport. This is a developing situation; stay on official warnings and be prepared to act quickly as conditions change.