Hurricane Melissa spaghetti models: latest track consensus, uncertainty zones, and timing for Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba

Hurricane Melissa’s “spaghetti models” tightened dramatically in the near term on Sunday, October 26, centering a slow-moving core near Jamaica with dangerous rain and wind bands arcing into Hispaniola. Beyond 48–72 hours, the guidance spreads, with clusters turning north or northeast toward eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage while a minority nudge farther west before curving. The slow crawl means prolonged impacts wherever the inner core or training rainbands stall.

What the spaghetti models show right now

• Short-range agreement (0–48 hours): Most track lines keep Melissa crawling west to west-southwest, then wobbling near or just south of Jamaica. With forward speed at a crawl, confidence is high in long-duration rain, coastal flooding, and periods of hurricane-force gusts in and around the island.

• Near-term hazards for Hispaniola: Eastern and southern Haiti remain inside dense model envelopes for heavy rain and landslides, even if the center stays south; terrain will amplify runoff.

• Intensity signal: Multiple model suites point to rapid intensification over very warm Caribbean waters and light-to-moderate shear. While exact category at landfall or closest pass is uncertain, the risk of a major hurricane in the western/central Caribbean is notable in the next 24–72 hours.

3–5 day divergence: key model camps

• Turn to the north/northeast (favored): A broad trough eroding the western Atlantic ridge opens a poleward escape route. In this camp, Melissa skirts or clips eastern Cuba and threads the Windward Passage, with impacts expanding into the southeastern Bahamas/Turks and Caicos late week.

• Farther west before turning: A smaller cluster trends closer to central or eastern Cuba before curvature, extending severe wind risk into Cuban provinces and keeping tropical-storm conditions around the Cayman area.

• Lower-probability Gulf solution: Only scattered outliers drift far enough west to threaten the Gulf; current consensus keeps Melissa east of the Yucatán Channel.

Bottom line: Confidence is high on Jamaica/Haiti hazards through Tuesday, moderate for significant Cuban impacts midweek, and lower on the exact latitude/longitude of the late-week turn.

Timing guide (subject to change)

Why the tracks fan out

• Steering tug-of-war: Melissa sits between a weakening subtropical ridge and an approaching mid-latitude trough. Small timing changes in that trough dramatically shift the turn point.

• Slow movement: Systems that crawl are harder to forecast; internal eyewall cycles and mesoscale shifts can alter both strength and heading.

• Topography feedback: Interaction with Jamaica or Cuba’s terrain can distort the inner core, nudging the track and modulating intensity.

Practical takeaways by region

Jamaica

• Prepare for prolonged hurricane conditions: extended wind episodes, 10–20+ inches of rain in favored slopes, and dangerous coastal surge on onshore-facing shores.

• Power outages and washed-out roads are likely; avoid travel during band peaks.

Haiti & Dominican Republic (south/central)

• Greatest threat is flooding and landslides from persistent bands, even if the center never crosses Hispaniola. River rises will be rapid; shelter decisions should prioritize high ground.

Cuba (eastern/central)

• Model consensus increases risk midweek. Plan for escalating wind and surge on the storm’s right-hand side and dangerous mountain runoff inland.

Cayman area / SE Bahamas & Turks and Caicos

• Stay in monitoring mode. A small shift in the turn could bring stronger winds and higher seas late week.

How to read the spaghetti models like a pro

• Don’t chase a single line. Look for clusters and the mean track; the center could wobble anywhere within the envelope.

• Cone ≠ impact limits. Hazardous rain and surf extend far outside the skinny track lines.

• Intensity is its own forecast. A more intense storm can feel different steering than a weaker one; track and strength are coupled.

Preparedness checklist (fast, flexible, local)

• 72 hours: Complete water, food, meds, and power backup needs; protect windows; clear drains.

• 48 hours: Move vehicles from flood-prone spots; stage go-bags; identify sturdy interior rooms.

• 24 hours: Finish outdoor tie-downs; shift to “ride-out” or evacuation plan based on local orders.

• During bands: Avoid bridges and low crossings; remember that the calm may be the eye—not the end.

Developing story: Forecast details and model consensus will evolve with each cycle. Treat new official advisories as decision drivers and adjust plans quickly if the turn sharpens or the forward speed changes.