Hurricane Melissa track: Jamaica in the crosshairs Tuesday, with Cuba and the SE Bahamas next in line

Hurricane Melissa has intensified into a powerful, slow-moving major hurricane in the western Caribbean and is tracking toward Jamaica for a likely landfall on Tuesday (local time). The storm’s crawl is a worst-case setup for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides in Jamaica and southern Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic), with eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas/Turks & Caicos facing high impacts mid-week.

Current status and motion

• Intensity: Major hurricane (Category 4) with extremely dangerous winds; additional strengthening is possible before landfall.

• Location: South of Jamaica, moving slowly west to west-northwest, which prolongs heavy rain over the same areas.

• Wind field: Hurricane-force winds near the core; tropical-storm-force winds extend well outward in rainbands.

• Primary hazards now: Torrential rain, mudslides in mountainous terrain, and rising rivers in Jamaica and southern Hispaniola; deteriorating marine conditions across the northwestern Caribbean.

Forecast track at a glance

Exact timing can shift if Melissa wobbles or changes forward speed; small track changes make large local differences.

Rainfall, surge, and wind risks

• Rainfall: Widespread 10–20 inches in Jamaica with localized 25–30+ inches; southern Hispaniola can exceed 30 inches in favored terrain. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are likely where bands stall.

• Storm surge: Dangerous coastal inundation is expected along Jamaica’s south and east coasts, especially near and east of the landfall point; surge and large battering waves will threaten low-lying roads and coastal communities.

• Winds: Sustained hurricane-force winds near the core with devastating gusts; structural damage and long-duration power outages are possible along the track and in the right-front quadrant.

Why Melissa is so dangerous

Two ingredients compound risk:

1. Very slow forward speed—prolongs rainfall over mountains and river basins.

2. High intensity near landfall—adds destructive wind and surge on top of flooding. Even if peak winds fluctuate before landfall, the flood threat does not depend on exact category and remains extreme.

Preparedness checklist for Jamaica and at-risk areas

• Finish protective actions now. Board or secure windows where advised; move valuables and documents above flood level.

• Shelter plan: Know your nearest shelter and routes that avoid flood-prone roads; do not wait for nighttime to relocate if you’re in a high-risk zone.

• Power & comms: Charge devices, stock batteries, and turn refrigerators/freezers to coldest settings. Unplug nonessential electronics before the eyewall arrives.

• Vehicles & fuel: Park on high ground, nose-out for a quick exit after the all-clear; avoid parking under trees.

• After the eye: Conditions can calm briefly if the eye passes overhead; extreme winds return quickly from the opposite direction—do not venture out until officials declare it safe.

Track nuances to watch

• Wobbles on approach: Short-term shifts in the core can slide the landfall point along Jamaica’s coastline; impacts remain severe beyond the precise center line.

• Interaction with terrain: Crossing Jamaica and/or eastern Cuba may temporarily weaken the wind core, but flood hazards often worsen over mountains even as peak winds dip.

• Turn north then northeast: A steering change mid-week should pull Melissa toward the SE Bahamas/Turks & Caicos and into the open Atlantic; the extent of wind and surge there depends on how quickly the turn occurs.

Travel and marine impacts

• Airports/ports: Intermittent closures likely in Jamaica ahead of landfall; disruptions may spread to eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas.

• Marine: Very dangerous seas across the Jamaica Channel, Windward Passage, and approaches to the SE Bahamas; small craft should remain in port.

• Supply chains: Landslides and washed-out bridges can isolate communities for days; plan for extended utility interruptions and limited road access.

Hurricane Melissa’s track puts Jamaica at high risk for a direct hit on Tuesday, with catastrophic flooding potential extending across southern Hispaniola and into eastern Cuba as the storm grinds north-westward, then turns north to northeast toward the SE Bahamas/Turks & Caicos. The combination of slow movement and major-hurricane intensity makes this a life-threatening event. If you’re in the warned areas, complete preparations immediately and follow local emergency guidance as conditions deteriorate.