Hurricane Melissa track: Category 5 storm targets Jamaica today, then accelerates toward Cuba, the Bahamas and near Bermuda

Hurricane Melissa’s track has tightened on a devastating path across the western Caribbean today, with the storm maintaining Category 5 intensity early Tuesday. The compact, extremely dangerous hurricane is creeping north-northeast at roughly walking speed, keeping its core and eyewall parked over very warm waters south of Jamaica. Official 5 a.m. ET updates placed the center near 17.2°N, 78.3°W, moving NNE around 5 mph with maximum sustained winds near 175 mph and a minimum pressure near 901 mb. The slow motion greatly heightens wind, surge and rainfall impacts for Jamaica before Melissa accelerates later in the day.

Latest forecast: Hurricane Melissa track and timing

• Jamaica (Today, Tue Oct 28): The track brings the core near or directly over the island today. Expect catastrophic wind damage in the path of the eyewall, life-threatening storm surge on south- and southeast-facing coasts, and torrential, long-duration rainfall with flash flooding and landslides.

• Eastern Cuba (Tonight into early Wed): After clearing Jamaica, Melissa is forecast to pick up speed toward the northeast, crossing or skirting eastern Cuba with destructive winds, dangerous surge on wind-exposed coasts, and severe flooding in mountainous terrain.

• Haiti & the Dominican Republic (Late Tue–Wed): The storm’s broad rain shield will drench southwestern Haiti and southern parts of the Dominican Republic, where landslides and flash flooding are likely even outside the core. Tropical-storm-force winds may arrive as outer bands sweep through.

• Turks & Caicos and the southeast/central Bahamas (Wed): Hurricane conditions, damaging surge, and squall lines are expected as the center passes nearby on Wednesday.

• Approaching Bermuda (Thu–Fri): Guidance shows Melissa accelerating into the western Atlantic, passing near Bermuda later in the week with a larger, more asymmetric wind field as the hurricane moves into stronger shear and cooler waters.

• Beyond 72–96 hours: The system is projected to transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic by the weekend.

At-a-glance timeline (subject to change)

Times reflect first arrival of dangerous winds/rain; exact track shifts can change local outcomes.

Impacts along the Hurricane Melissa path

• Wind: Sustained Category 5 winds near the core today will cause severe structural damage where the eyewall crosses Jamaica. Farther along the track, significant weakening is not guaranteed before eastern Cuba and the Bahamas; even a modest reduction still yields major hurricane impacts.

• Storm surge: Rapid, destructive water rises are expected on south- and east-facing coastlines of Jamaica today, then in low-lying coastal zones along the forecast path through eastern Cuba and parts of the Bahamas on Wednesday.

• Rainfall & flooding: Slow motion today concentrates rainfall over Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides likely, especially in mountainous terrain. Dangerous flooding risks then shift to eastern Cuba, southwestern Haiti and southern Dominican Republic through midweek.

• Rip currents & coastal flooding beyond the core: Large swells will expand across the northern Caribbean and western Atlantic through late week, bringing life-threatening surf and rip currents to exposed beaches far from the center, including parts of the U.S. East Coast later this week.

What could still change

Small wobbles in Melissa’s eye and any delays in the anticipated acceleration will materially change where the worst winds and surge occur—especially across Jamaica and the approach to eastern Cuba. Intensity changes are also possible: wind shear and cooler waters later this week should expand the wind field and gradually weaken the peak winds, but the storm may remain a high-impact system as it nears Bermuda.

Safety guidance and preparedness

• Jamaica: Shelter in place now if you are in a safe structure. Do not attempt to travel during eyewall passage; the brief “calm” inside the eye will be followed by a violent wind shift.

• Eastern Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic: Rush preparations to completion. Identify higher ground, avoid flood-prone valleys and unstable slopes, and be ready for prolonged power and communications outages.

• Bahamas and Turks & Caicos: Complete coastal evacuations where directed. Secure boats and loose outdoor items; expect rapid deterioration Wednesday.

• Bermuda and western Atlantic interests: Monitor the forecast closely for track shifts and the size of the wind field Thursday–Friday. Marine conditions will become dangerous well ahead of any closest approach.

The Hurricane Melissa track brings a catastrophic threat to Jamaica today, then a faster-moving but still life-threatening hurricane toward eastern Cuba and the Bahamas on Wednesday, before the storm races northeast near Bermuda late in the week and transitions over the North Atlantic. Details may evolve; stay alert to official local instructions.