Hurricane Melissa tracker live: Cat 5 core threatening Jamaica today; faster northeast turn toward eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and near Bermuda late week

Hurricane Melissa remains an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane this morning (Tuesday, Oct. 28), crawling north-northeast over very warm waters south of Jamaica. The storm’s compact eyewall is capable of catastrophic wind damage, life-threatening storm surge on south- and east-facing coasts, and torrential, long-duration rainfall. A gradual acceleration toward the northeast is expected later today into Wednesday, carrying the hurricane across or near eastern Cuba and into the Bahamas before racing into the open Atlantic and passing near Bermuda late week.

Live key numbers and status

• Location (early morning Tue): Just south of Jamaica, near 17°N, 78°W (approximate).

• Movement: North-northeast at 2–5 mph (very slow now; turning faster northeast later today).

• Maximum sustained winds: 170–175 mph (Category 5).

• Minimum central pressure: ~900–910 mb range.

• Wind field: Catastrophic winds near the core; hurricane-force winds extend outward tens of miles; tropical-storm-force winds much farther.

• Trend next 12–24 hours: Eyewall passage over or very near Jamaica with only gradual weakening expected before the turn/acceleration.

Values will fluctuate as new advisories arrive; intensity and track are highly sensitive to short-term wobbles.

Hurricane Melissa track — what’s next

• Jamaica (Today, Tue): The small, intense core brings the highest risk of total roof failure, widespread treefall, and prolonged power/communications outages where the eyewall crosses. Storm surge will be extreme on south and southeast coasts, with rapid, destructive water rises and large battering waves. Rainfall will be excessive, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides, especially in mountainous parishes.

• Eastern Cuba (Tonight–Wed): As Melissa begins its northeastward run, the core or inner wind field may clip eastern Cuba. Expect major wind damage where the inner eyewall nears the coast, dangerous surge on onshore-facing shores, and severe flooding in terrain-enhanced zones.

• Haiti & the Dominican Republic (Late Tue–Wed): Outer bands and the expanding rain shield will trigger flash flooding and landslides, even away from the center. Gusty to damaging winds possible in stronger squalls.

• Turks & Caicos and the southeast/central Bahamas (Wed): Increasing likelihood of hurricane-force winds, damaging surge in low-lying islands, and very heavy rain as the center passes nearby.

• Bermuda vicinity (Thu–Fri): Melissa should be larger but gradually weakening over cooler waters and higher shear, yet still capable of strong winds, heavy rain, and dangerous seas as it passes nearby before transitioning into a powerful extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic by the weekend.

Timing snapshot (subject to change)

Table reflects first arrival of dangerous winds/rain; slight track shifts can move these windows by several hours.

Live analysis: hazards along the path

• Wind: The compact inner core concentrates the strongest winds; minor wobbles can shift where the worst damage occurs. Even a modest reduction from Category 5 still yields devastating impacts along the immediate track through today.

• Storm surge: Jamaica faces the highest surge risk now, especially south/east coasts and inlets. As Melissa accelerates, surge threats extend to portions of eastern Cuba and the Bahamas, with locally extreme rises possible where the wind and bathymetry align.

• Rainfall and freshwater flooding: Slow motion today maximizes totals in Jamaica; some areas may experience rainfall measured in feet, with deadly flash floods and landslides. The risk then migrates with the track into eastern Cuba, southwestern Haiti, and southern Dominican Republic.

• Marine and surf: Very large, long-period swells expand through the northern Caribbean and into the western Atlantic. Life-threatening surf and rip currents will develop well away from the center, including along portions of the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda later this week.

Confidence, uncertainties, and what to watch

• Track confidence: High confidence in a turn and acceleration to the northeast within the next 12–24 hours; low to medium confidence in the exact path of the inner core over Jamaica and then near eastern Cuba, which determines where the worst winds and surge occur.

• Intensity confidence: High that Melissa remains a high-end, life-threatening hurricane through Wednesday. Medium confidence in the rate of weakening thereafter as shear and cooler waters increase; the wind field is likely to broaden even as peak winds slowly come down.

• Watch the wobble: Any jog in the eye’s position before acceleration could shift catastrophic impacts across different parishes in Jamaica and affect whether the core clips or narrowly misses eastern Cuba.

Immediate safety guidance

• Jamaica (now): Shelter in a safe interior room away from windows. Do not attempt to travel during eyewall passage; the calm of the eye will be brief, followed by a violent wind shift. If told to evacuate coastal areas, move to higher ground prior to peak conditions.

• Eastern Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic (today–Wed): Rush preparations to completion. Identify higher ground and avoid flood-prone valleys and unstable slopes. Expect prolonged power and communications outages.

• Bahamas & Turks and Caicos (Wed): Complete coastal evacuations where directed. Secure boats and outdoor items; conditions will deteriorate quickly as the storm speeds up.

• Bermuda (Thu–Fri): Prepare for strong winds, heavy rain, and dangerous seas even if the center passes to the west or east.

Hurricane Melissa’s tracker shows a catastrophic threat to Jamaica today, followed by a faster-moving but still severe hurricane targeting eastern Cuba and the Bahamas on Wednesday, then passing near Bermuda late week. Details may evolve with each advisory; remain ready to act on local instructions.