NYC mayor election 2025: Mamdani leads, Cuomo surges, Sliwa targets late break as early voting smashes records

New York City’s mayoral race has entered a high-intensity final stretch. With Election Day on Tuesday, November 4, 2025, early voting has surged to record levels and a late poll shows Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani still in front while independent Andrew Cuomo closes the gap. Republican Curtis Sliwa remains within striking distance of a runoff-style outcome in a low-margin environment, courting undecideds and irregular voters.

Where the race stands right now

• Early voting: Turnout over the weekend set new highs for a municipal cycle, with strong participation across outer-borough sites. Organizers on all sides point to aggressive ballot-chasing and expanded hours for the spike.

• Polling snapshot: Recent surveys place Mamdani in the low-40s, Cuomo in the low-to-mid-30s, and Sliwa in the mid-teens, with a small pool of undecided voters. The spread has tightened compared with earlier October, reflecting late movement among moderates and older voters.

• Ballot quirk: Eric Adams ended his campaign in late September but remains on the ballot on an independent line. Campaigns differ on how much his residual vote could matter in a close finish.

The choice set: three distinct paths for City Hall

Zohran Mamdani (Democratic nominee)

A Queens Assembly member and democratic socialist, Mamdani offers a left-populist platform: fare-free buses piloted on high-ridership routes, expanded rental protections and social housing, a “care-first” approach to homelessness, and climate-jobs projects tied to local hiring. His coalition skews younger, renter-heavy, and transit-dependent, with strong volunteer energy and a sophisticated field program.

Andrew Cuomo (Independent)

The former governor pitches executive experience and a centrist reset on safety and cost of living. His agenda emphasizes crime reduction with police accountability, targeted tax incentives for employers, accelerated housing approvals, and major capital delivery reform for subways and schools. His growth since mid-October is strongest among older Democrats, outer-borough homeowners, and union households wary of ideological swings.

Curtis Sliwa (Republican)

The longtime public-safety advocate runs on aggressive crime, cleanliness, and animal-welfare planks, promising more visible policing, expanded diversion for the mentally ill, encampment abatements paired with shelter access, and a quality-of-life sweep of transit and commercial corridors. His path relies on Staten Island, parts of southern Brooklyn and Queens, plus cross-over votes from independents frustrated with one-party governance.

Issues driving late deciders

• Safety and quality of life: All three candidates promise faster 911/311 response, transit enforcement tailored to serious offenses, and better coordination between NYPD, health, and housing agencies—differing most on scale and civil-liberties guardrails.

• Housing affordability: Competing plans mix zoning flexibility, public or social housing expansions, and tax revamps to spur multifamily construction while protecting tenants.

• Cost pressures: Proposals range from targeted tax relief for small businesses to congestion pricing tweaks and utility affordability programs.

• City finances: With labor contracts, debt service, and asylum-response costs in the foreground, voters are probing which promises survive a tight budget.

Early voting trends and what they may signal

Record early turnout typically advantages campaigns with robust field operations. Mamdani’s organizing footprint is evident in youthful precincts and transit-rich neighborhoods, while Cuomo’s late momentum appears in day-one and day-two seniors’ surges and higher-income districts. Sliwa’s ceiling depends on election-day spikes in his geographic strongholds and defections from disaffected Democrats.

Key dates, times, and mechanics (NYC)

• Election Day: Tue, Nov 4; polls typically 6 a.m.–9 p.m. ET (confirm your site and hours before heading out).

• ID & eligibility: Most registered voters do not need photo ID; some first-time voters may be asked for documentation.

• Ballot lines: Expect the three active contenders plus the withdrawn Adams line and down-ballot contests for council and other offices.

• Absentee/early ballots: Follow instructions precisely; late or unsigned envelopes are the top reason ballots get rejected.

What to watch in the final 6 days

1. Message discipline: Does Mamdani keep focus on affordability and buses, or spend time parrying fear-based attacks? Can Cuomo sustain a unifying, competence frame without alienating progressives he needs for 50%+1? Can Sliwa broaden beyond safety to economic stewardship without losing his brand?

2. Endorsements vs. ground game: High-profile nods matter less than door-knocks, ballot-cures, and ride-to-polls operations this late.

3. Ad spend targeting: Late buys aimed at older viewers and commuter radio suggest both persuasion and turnout plays in the outer boroughs. Digital micro-targeting will chase younger sporadic voters through the weekend.

4. The Adams factor: Even a small residual vote share could shape the margin; campaigns are calibrating whether to engage those voters or ignore the line to avoid amplifying it.

5. Weather and logistics: A rainy Election Day historically dampens marginal turnout; early-vote padding is insurance.

The NYC mayor election has narrowed. Mamdani still leads, but Cuomo is within closing distance and Sliwa is positioned to outperform if election-day turnout breaks his way. With unprecedented early voting and just a sliver of undecideds left, the winner will likely be the campaign that converts organization into ballots—and keeps its coalition unified through the final news cycle.