YouGov Polls Show Spanberger, Sherrill Leading in Virginia, New Jersey Elections

YouGov conducted surveys from October 17 to October 28 in Virginia and New Jersey, revealing significant Democratic leads in both gubernatorial races. The findings indicate voters’ preferences as election day approaches.

YouGov Polls Indicate Democratic Leads in Virginia and New Jersey Elections

Virginia Gubernatorial Race

In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads against Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. The poll shows Spanberger with 55% support among likely voters, while Earle-Sears has 41%, and 4% remain undecided. This momentum comes from Spanberger’s substantial backing among various demographics.

• Democratic Support: 97% favor Spanberger.
• Republican Support: 92% favor Earle-Sears.
• Independent Support: Spanberger leads 58% to 34%.

The electorate in Virginia is nearly evenly split; 32% identify as Democrats, while 31% are Republicans. Spanberger also leads among different racial groups:

• White Voters: 51% for Spanberger, 46% for Earle-Sears.
• Hispanic Voters: 61% for Spanberger, 24% for Earle-Sears.
• Black Voters: 81% for Spanberger, 17% for Earle-Sears.

With undecided voters leaning toward candidates, Spanberger’s lead extends slightly to 57% against Earle-Sears’ 42%.

New Jersey Gubernatorial Race

The contest in New Jersey shows a tighter race. Democrat Mikie Sherrill holds a 51% to 42% lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli, with 5% undecided and 1% considering other candidates. The breakdown of support reveals similar party dynamics as observed in Virginia.

• Democratic Support: 96% favor Sherrill.
• Republican Support: 93% favor Ciattarelli.
• Independent Advantage: Ciattarelli leads 44% to 43%.

New Jersey also has more Democrats, registering 34% to 29% for Republicans among likely voters. Voter preference varies across racial groups:

• White Voters: Sherrill leads 49% to 45%.
• Hispanic Voters: Sherrill leads 59% to 32%.
• Black Voters: Sherrill leads 74% to 18%.

When accounting for undecided voters, Sherrill’s lead grows to 54% against Ciattarelli’s 44%.

Methodology of the YouGov Polls

These polls included 1,179 likely voters in Virginia and 1,153 in New Jersey. Participants were recruited via text messages, and responses were weighted to reflect demographics like gender, age, and previous voter turnout. In New Jersey, party registration was considered, while Virginia relied on modeled party support.

Both polls have an approximate margin of error of 4 percentage points. As the elections near, these insights underscore key trends in voter attitudes across two critical battleground states.