Can BYU Reach the Big 12 Championship? Analyzing the Numbers
The Big 12 football race is shaping up to be a thrilling contest. With just 36 days until the conference championship game, the month of November will be crucial. Currently, BYU is leading the Big 12 standings with a record of 8-0, including a perfect 5-0 in conference games. They are the last unbeaten team in the league, alongside Cincinnati.
BYU’s Championship Aspirations
BYU’s strong performance comes after last year’s disappointing finish, where two close losses in November prevented their appearance in the Big 12 championship game. However, based on current analytics, the 2025 Cougars are positioned for a more favorable outcome. ESPN Analytics utilizes several metrics, including the Football Power Index (FPI), to forecast the results of upcoming games.
Remaining Schedule and Projections
Here’s a breakdown of BYU’s remaining schedule and their projected outcomes:
- At Texas Tech – 41.9% chance to win
- Vs. TCU – 75.3% chance to win
- At Cincinnati – 56.7% chance to win
- Vs. UCF – 84.6% chance to win
Analytics suggest that BYU could finish the season with an 11-1 record, including 8 wins in Big 12 play.
Other Contenders in the Big 12
BYU is not the only team vying for the championship. Here is a look at the other top competitors:
- Texas Tech: Current record 7-1 (4-1 Big 12)
- Vs. BYU – 58.1% chance to win
- Projected final record: 11-1 (8-1 Big 12)
- Cincinnati: Current record 7-1 (5-0 Big 12)
- Vs. BYU – 43.3% chance to win
- Projected final record: 8-4 (6-3 Big 12)
- Houston: Current record 7-1 (4-1 Big 12)
- Vs. TCU – 44.5% chance to win
- Projected final record: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12)
- Utah: Current record 6-2 (3-2 Big 12)
- Vs. Cincinnati – 80.5% chance to win
- Projected final record: 10-2 (7-2 Big 12)
Potential Championship Matchup
According to projections, the likely matchup for the Big 12 championship game could be an exciting clash between 11-1 BYU and 11-1 Texas Tech.
Understanding Big 12 Tiebreakers
In the event of tied records, the Big 12 has specific tiebreaking rules:
- Head-to-head competition results
- Win percentage against all common conference opponents
- Win percentage against the next highest-placed common opponent
- Combined win percentage in conference games
- Total number of wins in a 12-game season
- Ranking by SportSource Analytics
- Coin toss if necessary
As the season progresses, these analytical insights will provide fans with exciting projections and potential scenarios for the championship race in the Big 12.
