Melbourne Cup 2025: wide gate for topweight Al Riffa, favourite Half Yours draws sweetly as heavy ground looms

Bassyonni

ago 8 hours

Melbourne Cup 2025

All roads lead to Flemington on Tuesday, November 4 for the 2025 Melbourne Cup—and the plotlines are already thick. The barrier draw handed a headache to topweight Al Riffa (59kg) with a wide gate (19), while local favourite Half Yours came up with a forgiving middle alley, keeping dreams of a famous spring double very much alive. With forecasters tipping significant rain into Cup Eve and showers on race day, expect soft to heavy footing and a staying test worthy of the trophy.

Start times and broadcast window

Jump: 3:00 p.m. AEDT, Flemington (Race 7)
Elsewhere: 2:30 p.m. ACDT · 2:00 p.m. AEST (QLD) · 12:00 p.m. AWST
Global guide: 4:00 a.m. UTC · 6:00 a.m. Cairo · 4:00 a.m. London (GMT) · 11:00 p.m. (Mon) New York (ET)

The draw at a glance: winners and worries

Al Riffa (FR) — 59kg, barrier 19: The class and the weight of the race. A wide stall plus top impost demands an inch-perfect ride and early decisions about whether to roll forward or snag cover.
Half Yours (AUS) — middle gate: Momentum horse of the spring and demonstrably effective on rain-affected ground. A neutral draw avoids traffic nightmares into the first turn.
Buckaroo (GB) — barrier 12: Maps for a soft run in transit. Proven at weight-for-age and one of the internationals most likely to relish a slog.
Roughie radar: Wet-track credentialled stayers drawn off the fence—types who can creep into it late as the inside chops out—grow more dangerous if the rating slides to Heavy 8/9 by mid-card.

Track and weather: why Cup Day could start “Heavy”

A deep fetch of moisture across Victoria is forecast to lay down 40–50mm Sunday–Monday, with additional showers on Tuesday. The likely sequence: Heavy to start the meeting, gradual improvement only if race-day rain eases and the westerly gets up. Historical Cup patterns on wet tracks favour:

True stayers with 2400–3000m exposed form.
Horses with tactical speed to hold a position and avoid kickback.
Rails-off lanes late, shifting the sweet spot to lanes 4–8 entering the straight.

Pace map: how the race could unfold

Expect an honest gallop. Several runners prefer to roll on or sit first four, which should prevent a slogging sprint home. Key beats:

Run to the post first time: Mid-gate contenders try to slot two or three pairs back with cover; wide-draw runners face a choice—spend fuel early or risk being posted.
Back straight: The tempo steadies; jockeys protect footing and hunt the better lanes.
From the 800m: Moves come three-wide with cover; wet-track Cup winners often launch here to sustain momentum rather than dash.

Five form themes to frame your shortlist

Weight vs. class: Carrying 59kg to win the Cup is rare; only genuine top-tier stayers manage it on any ground, let alone wet.
Caulfield Cup correlation: This year’s Caulfield form is strong and was run on soft going—a powerful pointer if the rain lands.
Euro wet-trackers: European “soft/heavy” isn’t a perfect match for Australian ratings, but high-mileage stayers who handle testing turf often improve here over two miles.
Barrier pragmatism: Middle alleys reduce decision risk. Wide gates are survivable only with early cover or superior engine.
Local course craft: Flemington’s long run-in rewards patience; riders who time the move to the crown of the track frequently decide the race.

Contenders in one line

Half Yours: Spring peak, versatile pattern, and a draw that keeps options open—ticks most boxes if the track is genuinely wet.
Al Riffa: The best résumé, the worst impost. Needs luck and tempo to offset weight and gate.
Buckaroo: Strong WFA yardstick, maps sweetly, handles cut—live late.
River Of Stars: Progressive mare with staying profile; becomes very interesting if lanes shift off-rail.
Arapaho / similar on-speed stayers: Can control their destiny if the track chops and the rail isn’t poison.

Betting rhythm for a wet Cup (general pointers)

Watch early races for lane bias before committing to leaders vs. swoopers.
Respect proven wet figures over raw peak ratings on firm.
Exotics: Spread around the mud-lovers; Cups on heavy often deliver one blowout in the first four.

Race-week essentials

Scratchings: Final declarations hit 7:30 a.m. AEDT Tuesday; late scratchings are possible if conditions deteriorate.
Prize money: A$10 million purse with winner’s share life-changing and pedigrees-defining.
Dress code & logistics: Wet-weather gear for the lawn, plan extra time for transport, and expect minor timetable tweaks if lightning holds occur.

A rain-affected Melbourne Cup tilts the chessboard toward true stayers and adaptable rides. The favourite Half Yours has the map and the mud; Al Riffa brings the class and a challenge from the draw; Buckaroo is the middle-alleys smokey. If the heavens open, don’t be shocked when a hardened wet-tracker grabs a podium—and maybe the Cup itself.