Mamdani’s Betting Odds Surge to 95%

In a significant development in the New York City mayoral race, Democratic assemblymember Zohran Mamdani has seen his odds of winning surge to 95% in various betting markets. This increase in confidence came just hours before polls closed, where he faced off against former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa.

Mamdani’s Betting Odds Rise

On election day, Mamdani’s chances of success reached approximately 93% on Kalshi and peaked at 94.6% on Polymarket earlier in the afternoon. In contrast, Cuomo’s odds were at 7% on Kalshi and 5.5% on Polymarket, while Sliwa’s odds hovered around 1% across both platforms.

Voter Turnout Statistics

• The voter turnout in New York City exceeded 1.4 million, marking the highest engagement in a mayoral election since 2001.
• The previous high was recorded during a race between Republican Michael Bloomberg and Democrat Mark Green, which drew 1.5 million votes.

Financial Influences in the Election

At least 26 billionaires have contributed substantial funds to the mayoral race, with total donations opposing Mamdani reaching $22 million. Notably, Bloomberg himself donated $8.3 million to the Fix the City super PAC, which supports Cuomo. This group also received financial backing from Airbnb co-founder Joseph Gebbia and the Lauder family, who collectively donated an additional $2.6 million.

Political Reactions

Former President Donald Trump publicly urged voters to support Cuomo, expressing concerns about Mamdani’s policies. He criticized his campaign rhetoric, suggesting that a Mamdani win would complicate federal funding for New York City. His sentiments were reflected in a Truth Social post where he stated, “it is highly unlikely that I will be contributing Federal Funds.”

Wall Street’s Perspective

Analysts on Wall Street voiced apprehensions about a potential Mamdani victory. Dean Lyulkin, CEO of Cardiff, described it as a considerable risk for 2026, while Peter Cardillo from Spartan Capital Securities believed a drastic program from Mamdani was unlikely to materialize.

Background on Mamdani’s Campaign

• Mamdani secured the Democratic nomination for mayor with 56% of the primary vote, defeating Cuomo.
• His campaign has garnered attention for advocating policies such as raising corporate taxes, freezing rent on stabilized apartments, and making city buses fare-free.

Mamdani’s rise in betting odds emphasizes a shifting political landscape in New York City as he aims to attract a diverse voter base ahead of the election results. El-Balad will continue to monitor the situation as it unfolds.