Private Data Reveals Trends in Hiring and Layoffs Amid No Jobs Report
In the midst of an unprecedented government shutdown, the U.S. job market is facing considerable challenges. For the second consecutive month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has not released its jobs report, leaving economists, job seekers, and investors seeking insights from alternative data sources.
Current Job Market Trends Amid the Shutdown
Several organizations, including ADP and Indeed, have published their analyses to help gauge job market conditions. Reports indicate that October remained a tough month for job seekers. Key findings highlight increased job cuts alongside a lack of significant job growth in various sectors.
Job Cuts Reach New Highs
- Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported a sharp increase in announced job cuts, reaching 153,074 in October. This figure marks the highest total for the month since 2003.
- The cumulative announced job cuts for 2023 now exceed 1 million, far surpassing last year’s total of approximately 761,000.
Andy Challenger, chief revenue officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, noted that industries are introspecting post-pandemic hiring surges amidst factors like AI adoption and rising costs. Companies are responding to these pressures with hiring freezes.
Private Sector Job Growth Shows Mixed Results
According to the ADP National Employment Report, the U.S. added 42,000 private sector jobs in October, exceeding expectations but still reflecting modest hiring trends. The growth was predominantly in larger companies with over 500 employees.
- Industry highlights include:
- Trade, transportation, and utilities: +47,000 jobs
- Information, manufacturing, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality: declines in employment
Job Postings Decline
Data from Indeed indicates that job postings have fallen to their lowest level since 2021. Allison Shrivastava from the Indeed Hiring Lab describes the situation as precarious, with job prospects diminishing. Many people are finding it increasingly difficult to enter the labor market.
Insights from Other Data Sources
LinkedIn’s data suggests that hiring trends for October were relatively stagnant, with a slight 0.8% decrease compared to September. Kory Kantenga noted that both job supply and demand are showing signs of slowdown, emphasizing the need for job seekers to explore resilient sectors like healthcare and construction.
Additionally, Bank of America’s report highlights no significant further slowdown in the labor market despite some cooling since summer. They note increased unemployment payments year-on-year, reflecting ongoing economic pressures.
Small Business Hiring Faces Challenges
Insight from Gusto indicates a decline in hiring among small businesses, marking the first drop in net hires since January. High borrowing costs, tariff uncertainties, and increased operating expenses are contributing to this shift. Andrew Chamberlain from Gusto anticipates that potential future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may foster a rebound in hiring conditions.
Conclusion
The absence of federal jobs data complicates the understanding of the current employment landscape. As alternative reports suggest, the job market is experiencing significant turmoil, with layoffs rising and hiring growth stalling. Ongoing economic adjustments will likely shape future trends in employment and the broader economy.
