October NFIB Survey: Small Business Optimism Dips Amid Reduced Uncertainty

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index experienced a modest decline in October 2025, dropping 0.6 points to 98.2. Despite this decrease, the index remains slightly above its historical average of 98, reflecting ongoing resilience in the small business sector.

Key Insights from the October NFIB Survey

The Uncertainty Index also demonstrated a downward trend, falling 12 points from September to 88, marking the year’s lowest figure.

Economic Challenges Impacting Small Businesses

• Thirty-two percent of small businesses reported job openings that remain unfilled, consistent with the previous month. The last time this figure was reached was in December 2020.
• Labor quality emerged as the most significant issue for 27% of owners, showing a 9-point increase from September.
• Sales figures indicate a net negative 13% reported higher nominal sales over the past three months, down 6 points from the previous month.
• The profit trend also declined significantly, dropping 9 points to a net negative 25% for owners.
• Sixty percent of small business owners cited supply chain disruptions impacting their operations, albeit down 4 points from September.

Future Outlook

Looking ahead, a net 30% of business owners plan to increase prices in the next three months. This figure reflects a slight decrease of 1 point from September.

• Thirty-two percent of small business owners are hiring or seeking to hire, but 88% reported encountering few or no qualified candidates.
• A net 15% plan to create new jobs in the upcoming months, indicating a subtle decline in hiring enthusiasm.

Financial Trends and Borrowing

The average interest rate on short-term loans was recorded at 8.7% in October. Additionally, only 23% of owners reported borrowing regularly, a decrease of 3 points from the previous month. The overall sentiment regarding business health indicated a decline, as more owners rated their business conditions as “fair” rather than “good.”

Importance of Labor Quality

Labor quality continues to dominate concerns among small business owners. The increase in those citing this as their top issue signifies ongoing challenges in recruitment and retention.

Conclusion

The NFIB Research Center has collected extensive data on Small Business Economic Trends since 1973, with the current survey reflecting sentiments from October 2025. Released on the second Tuesday of each month, this report provides invaluable insights into the small business climate across the nation.