Northern Lights Forecast Tonight: Where and When to See the Aurora Borealis
A burst of strong solar activity is setting up one of the best chances in recent months to see the aurora borealis tonight and into Wednesday night. Multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) launched in recent days are converging near Earth, and forecasters have issued geomagnetic storm watches through November 13 with the potential for a strong-to-severe event on Wednesday. If the storm materializes as expected, the northern lights could dip well into the northern United States and be easily visible across Canada, northern Europe and Scotland, and high-latitude regions of Russia. This is a dynamic, developing situation; timing and strength may still shift by several hours as the solar ejecta interact.
Aurora forecast overview: tonight and the next 48 hours
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Tonight (Tue night, Nov. 11 → early Wed, Nov. 12): Elevated chances for aurora with Kp 5–6 (G2–G3) possible. Visibility likely across much of Canada, the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains in the U.S., and widely across the Nordic countries, Iceland, and northern UK.
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Wednesday night (Nov. 12 → early Thu, Nov. 13): The peak disturbance may arrive, with watches indicating potential up to Kp 8 (G4). If realized, the aurora could reach farther south in North America (as far as the central U.S.) and be more frequent and intense across Europe after nightfall.
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Thursday night (Nov. 13): Activity may remain elevated (Kp 5–7), though declining from any Wednesday peak.
Note: Kp refers to a planetary index of geomagnetic activity from 0–9. Higher numbers mean brighter aurora visible farther from the poles.
Who has the best chance to see northern lights tonight?
North America (evening/night, Tue):
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High confidence: Alaska and most of Canada, especially the Yukon, Northwest Territories, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec.
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Good chance: U.S. border states from Washington/Idaho/Montana through the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan; also northern New England.
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Conditional southward extent (if Kp ≥6–7): Possible edges into Oregon, Wyoming, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York—especially rural northern areas with dark skies. Brief glows or pillars low on the northern horizon are most likely.
Europe & UK (late night Tue → pre-dawn Wed, then Wed evening):
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High confidence: Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland.
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Good chance: Scotland and the North of England when skies are clear, particularly with Kp ≥6.
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Conditional southward extent (if Kp ≥7–8): Denmark, northern Germany, the Benelux region, and Poland could see aurora low on the horizon in darker locations.
Asia high latitudes: Northern Russia and parts of Siberia should have recurring opportunities during local nighttime, with the most vivid displays if the strongest CME arrives during darkness.
Quick guide: Kp and how far south you might see aurora
| Kp | Typical visibility (clear, dark sky) |
|---|---|
| 4 | Northern tier of U.S., Scotland/N. Ireland horizon glows |
| 5 | Much of Canada; U.S. border states; northern UK with structure |
| 6 | Into the Upper Midwest/Northeast U.S.; central UK more likely |
| 7 | Central U.S. possible on the horizon; northern Europe lit up |
| 8 | Broad, vivid displays deep into mid-latitudes in both hemispheres |
This table is a rule of thumb; local conditions and timing matter.
Best viewing times and directions
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Timing: Aurora often pulses in waves. In North America, try 10 p.m.–2 a.m. local time tonight, then again Wednesday evening if activity peaks later. In Europe/UK, check late night Tuesday into the pre-dawn hours Wednesday, and again after dusk on Wednesday if the main impact is delayed.
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Direction: Face north in mid-latitudes; overhead activity is more likely the closer you are to the auroral oval.
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Darkness matters: Get away from city lights. Allow 20–30 minutes for your eyes to adjust.
Cloud cover and moonlight
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Clouds are the top spoiler. If your local forecast looks poor tonight, don’t give up—Wednesday night may be better.
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Moon phase this week offers manageable light; bright aurora can still cut through thin cloud or moonlight, but darker skies dramatically improve contrast.
Real-time tips to boost your chances
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Watch Kp and Bz: Kp gives the overall level, but a sustained southward Bz (−5 to −10 nT or lower) is the green light for strong, structured aurora at mid-latitudes.
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Look for arcs and pillars: Early signs include a faint gray-green band low in the north. Cameras will often pick it up before your eyes do—use night mode or a 15–20s exposure at ISO 1600–3200.
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Stay flexible: CMEs can arrive hours early or late. If nothing appears at your first window, try again later tonight or tomorrow night.
Safety and expectations
Recent updates indicate a complex, multi-day event with overlapping CMEs. Details may evolve as measurements from space-weather monitors update in real time. Manage expectations in mid-latitudes: even during strong storms, displays can come in bursts separated by quiet periods. Patience pays off.
The northern lights forecast tonight is promising—good to very good at higher latitudes, with a credible chance for mid-latitude sightings if geomagnetic conditions climb into the Kp 6–7 range. Wednesday night currently looks most favorable for an even broader show should the strongest impacts arrive then. Keep an eye on real-time indices, find clear and dark skies, and be ready to step outside on short notice.
