Top NFL Week 11 Picks: Underdog Bets Against the Spread
As the NFL enters Week 11, the dynamics of betting on underdogs shift noticeably. The first ten weeks typically reveal underrated teams while also exposing those that may be overrated. Historically, underdog teams have a 52.8% cover rate in the first ten weeks of the season. However, this percentage drops to 48.4% from Week 11 to the end of the schedule, indicating a more complicated environment for bettors.
In 2023, the underdogs face an uphill battle with a 68-76-2 against the spread (ATS) record, translating to a lower cover rate of 47.3%. This raises the question of whether these underdogs will bounce back in Week 11 or struggle further as the season progresses.
NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks
In this article, we highlight top NFL Week 11 picks focused on underdog bets against the spread. This week’s predictions include:
- Washington Commanders (+3) at Miami Dolphins
- Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+4)
- Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (+7.5)
Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins
The Washington Commanders are looking to end a five-game losing streak as they travel to Spain to face the Miami Dolphins. Both teams share a 3-7 record but come in from different directions. While the Dolphins recently celebrated a significant 30-13 victory over the Bills, they have struggled post-win, holding a 2-7 straight-up (SU) and ATS record after a win over the last two seasons. Head coach Mike McDaniel will need a strong performance to avoid the pressure of coaching changes after this game.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos welcome the Kansas City Chiefs, who come off their bye week with mixed success in previous years. Andy Reid’s Chiefs have a 3-5 ATS record following a bye since 2020. Meanwhile, the Broncos’ defense ranks among the top teams in several metrics, including sacks and quarterback hits, positioning them as a formidable opponent for the Chiefs. Denver will rely on this defensive strength to stay competitive in this matchup.
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans, coming off a bye week, look to capitalize against the Houston Texans. Houston remains shaky, particularly if quarterback C.J. Stroud cannot return from a concussion. With a demanding schedule ahead, including a matchup against the Bills shortly after facing Tennessee, the Texans could struggle under pressure. Meanwhile, the Titans aim to tighten their game with interim coach Mike McCoy at the helm and hope to exploit Houston’s vulnerable offensive line.
The betting landscape for Week 11 is critical as teams vie for postseason positioning. With underdog picks gaining focus, bettors will be keen to see how these matchups play out. Each game presents unique narratives, with underperforming teams poised for a turnaround or headed for further frustration as the regular season draws to a close.
