Advanced Analytics Reveal Insights on No. 12 BYU vs. TCU Matchup
The No. 12 BYU Cougars will face TCU on Saturday night, aiming to maintain their trajectory toward the Big 12 Championship. BYU holds a 4.5-point advantage heading into this matchup. Advanced analytics provide mixed predictions on the outcome, reflecting a competitive contest.
Advanced Analytics Insights on BYU vs. TCU
Various predictive models yield different chances for BYU to succeed against the Horned Frogs. BCFToys gives the Cougars a 72.1% likelihood of victory, projecting a final score of 30.2 to 21.6. Additionally, BCFToys ranks BYU 18th nationally for defensive efficiency and 22nd for offensive performance.
SP+ and Other Predictions
ESPN’s SP+ metric predicts a 69% chance for BYU to win, with an expected score of 30 to 23. BYU ranks 22nd in SP+, bolstered by strong performances in defense and special teams, which are ranked 19th and 22nd, respectively. In contrast, TCU holds the 39th spot in SP+ and is rated 35th in offense and 47th in defense.
Key Advantages for BYU
- Offensive Momentum: Despite a significant drop in offensive rankings following the Texas Tech game, BYU still holds the 29th position in quality drive rate. TCU ranks 96th, allowing a quality drive rate of 46.2%.
- Defensive Success: BYU’s defense ranks 34th in early down success rate, showing resilience in putting opposing offenses behind the chains. TCU struggles, sitting at 83rd in this category.
- Third Down Matchup: Both teams have notable third down statistics, with BYU ranked 15th defensively and TCU ranked 15th offensively. The performance in this area could be crucial for determining the winner.
The Football Power Index (FPI) paints a slightly more optimistic picture for BYU, assigning a 73.8% chance of winning. CFB Graphs predicts a tighter battle, with BYU given a 59.8% chance to beat TCU, forecasting a score of 27 to 22.
As the game approaches, BYU must leverage these analytics to capitalize on its strengths and secure a vital win against TCU.
