White House Warns October Jobs Data Release May Be Halted
The October jobs data release may be significantly delayed or even canceled due to a prolonged government shutdown. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt indicated that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) likely will not provide the October jobs and inflation reports, even after the government reopens.
Impact of the Government Shutdown
During the 40-day shutdown, the BLS was largely inactive. Staff were only recalled temporarily to release the September consumer price index (CPI) to determine the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for the upcoming year. However, this limited activity prevented the agency from collecting necessary data for the much-anticipated October reports.
Economic experts express concerns about the integrity of data collected post-shutdown. They warn of ‘recall bias,’ where individuals may struggle to accurately remember past events. This could result in flawed data, impacting economic assessments.
Concerns Raised by Experts
- Leavitt noted, “Democrats may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system.”
- She emphasized the risks of policymaking without reliable data, particularly for the Federal Reserve.
- Experts fear the BLS’s inability to release timely data leaves policymakers and Wall Street without a clear economic picture.
The BLS was set to release September jobs data, which was collected before the shutdown, expected shortly after the government reopens. However, the possibility of an October data blackout raises concerns among analysts.
Federal Reserve Implications
The Federal Reserve’s leadership is scheduled to meet in the second week of December. They could face challenges due to incomplete economic data. In contrast, payroll processor ADP has started releasing weekly job estimates, yet many experts argue these private-sector figures cannot fully substitute for government-collected data.
Response from the Labor Department
A representative for the Labor Department has not provided details on the potential October data release. Acting BLS Commissioner William Wiatrowski has not commented on the situation either. In previous statements, he mentioned that the BLS would keep the public informed about any changes to its news release schedule.
Further, Erica Groshen, a former BLS leader, suggested that if the agency cancels the monthly jobs report, they should include that data in future releases instead of omitting it entirely. She stated, “They would very much not want to have missing data forever.”
Broader Data Collection Efforts
Besides the BLS, the government collects economic information through the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau, both part of the Commerce Department. The integrity and timeliness of data from these agencies remain important for a comprehensive understanding of the job market and economic situation.
