November 2025 Oil Market Analysis Released
The global oil market is currently witnessing a significant imbalance characterized by an increase in supply and modest growth in demand. The latest analysis for November 2025 highlights critical developments in the oil supply chain, alongside various economic uncertainties.
Current Oil Supply and Demand Dynamics
World oil supply surged to an average of 108.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in October, despite a month-over-month fall of 440 thousand barrels per day (kb/d). This decline was attributed to both planned field maintenance and unscheduled outages.
Despite the temporary setback, total oil output has remained considerably above the levels reported in January by 6.2 mb/d. Looking towards the future, oil supply is projected to rise by 3.1 mb/d in 2025, reaching an annual average of 106.3 mb/d, and by an additional 2.5 mb/d in 2026.
OPEC+ and Non-OPEC+ Contributions
- Saudi Arabia increased its supply by nearly 1.5 mb/d from January to October 2023.
- In contrast, Russia’s output only grew by 120 kb/d during the same timeframe, hindered by sanctions and operational challenges.
Recent sanctions imposed by the United States and United Kingdom on major Russian producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, have severely affected Russia’s oil industry. These new restrictions will be enforced starting November 21, 2023. However, Russian exports have continued largely unaffected for now.
Sanctions and Impact on Oil Reserves
Following a significant increase in oil reserves on water, estimates indicate a build of 92 million barrels (mb) in October alone. Of this increase, approximately 32% can be traced back to sanctioned shipments. Long-haul shipments from American producers to markets east of Suez have contributed to the flurry of global oil stocks.
Refinery Margins and Stock Levels
Refinery margins across Europe and Asia have soared to two-year highs. This increase is driven by depleted product stocks and unexpected outages in refineries. In the U.S. Mid-continent, refinery margins doubled within days after a recent refinery shutdown.
Future Consumption Growth and Supply Forecasts
The oil demand outlook has been cautiously revised upward, with a 170 kb/d increase for the third quarter of 2025, largely due to robust deliveries in China. However, annual growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain below 800 kb/d.
While petrochemical feedstocks are expected to be a primary driver for demand, the sector has not met performance expectations thus far this year. Analysts predict that oil consumption growth will slow in the fourth quarter of 2025, while crude supply is set to continue its ascent, potentially further skewing market balances.
