Bitcoin Nears ‘Death Cross’ as Market Tests Key Historical Pattern
Recent data from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin is nearing a critical technical analysis event known as a “death cross.” This occurrence might suggest a bearish trend in the cryptocurrency market. Presently, Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average stands at $110,669 and is poised to fall below the 200-day moving average of $110,459.
Implications of the Death Cross
This potential crossover is generally viewed as a sign of weakening momentum in the short term compared to the longer-term trend. Interestingly, while the death cross typically signifies impending downturns, it can also precede positive market reversals.
Market Context
- Bitcoin has declined approximately 25% from its all-time high of around $126,000 reached in October.
- This downward trend has persisted for about 41 days.
- The imminent death cross could mark the fourth occurrence since the current market cycle began in 2023.
Previous Death Cross Instances
Historically, the last three death crosses aligned with significant market bottoms:
- September 2023: Bitcoin fell to around $25,000.
- August 2024: During the yen carry trade unwind, it found support at approximately $49,000.
- April 2025: Amid uncertainties about President Trump’s tariff policies, Bitcoin bottomed below $75,000.
Currently, Bitcoin’s price is near $94,000. In all previous occurrences, the market established its lows shortly before the death cross formed. This prompts speculation on whether the ongoing pattern may repeat itself.
Comparative Analysis of Corrections
The current correction appears less severe than the one experienced in April, which saw Bitcoin drop below $75,000 during the tariff-related crisis. The April correction lasted about 79 days and resulted in a 30% decrease from a January peak of approximately $109,000.
- Current correction: 25% decline over 41 days.
- Previous correction: 30% decline over 79 days.
Government Shutdown Considerations
The ongoing market dynamics are further complicated by the recent end to the United States government shutdown on November 12. A notable precedent occurred in 2019, following a government shutdown, when Bitcoin dropped over 9% five days after reopening.
2019 Shutdown Recovery
Bitcoin’s recovery took approximately two weeks in February 2019. This year, Bitcoin has already experienced a 10% decrease since the government’s reopening, raising questions about whether a similar pattern will unfold.
As traders and investors monitor these developments, the potential for Bitcoin to replicate previous market behaviors remains a focal point. The ultimate outcome will depend on various factors, including market sentiment and external economic influences.
