BYU’s Path to Big 12 Championship Shifts After Dominating TCU
BYU’s recent performance has positioned them as a strong contender for the upcoming Big 12 Championship. The Cougars, currently ranked 12th, delivered a convincing victory against TCU with a score of 44-13. This dominant game sets the stage for a crucial play-in match next week against Cincinnati.
BYU’s Path to the Big 12 Championship
With two games left in the season, BYU has a clear opportunity to reach the Big 12 Championship. They have maintained control over their destiny throughout the season. If they secure victories in both remaining games, they will complete the season with an 8-1 record, guaranteeing a spot in Arlington for the championship.
Current Standings and Scenarios
- Record if 2-0: 8-1, assured championship berth.
- Contender: Texas Tech, the only other one-loss team.
In a more complicated scenario, finishing the season 1-1 may still grant them a chance, but they would require assistance from other teams. This scenario assumes a loss to Cincinnati and a win against UCF, where BYU has a 92% probability of triumphing over UCF.
What BYU Needs to Secure a Championship Spot
- Assume loss to Cincinnati;
- Beat UCF;
- Hope Arizona State and Cincinnati each lose one more game;
In this situation, BYU would rely on the outcome of three key games. They would need:
- TCU to defeat Cincinnati;
- Arizona State to lose to either Arizona or Colorado;
If both Arizona State and Cincinnati falter in their next matches, BYU will find itself tied for second place with Utah. However, a head-to-head victory over Utah would give the Cougars the edge, enabling them to advance to the championship.
Likelihood of Championship Berth
Without a doubt, ending the season with back-to-back losses would eliminate BYU from championship contention. Current statistical analysis suggests that Arizona State has a 31.6% chance to win their remaining games, while Cincinnati holds a 41.4% chance against TCU. This means there is a 40.1% probability that both teams will lose the necessary games, favoring BYU’s championship aspirations.
As the season progresses, BYU’s quest for the Big 12 Championship remains at the forefront. The upcoming games promise to be pivotal in determining their fate in the league.
