Nvidia Stock Set to Rally Post-Q3 Earnings Report?
As Nvidia (NVDA) prepares for its fiscal third-quarter earnings report, analysts are eager to see if CEO Jensen Huang can boost the company’s stock price. Ahead of the report, Nvidia’s shares are trading above a significant support level. Recently, the stock hit a record high of $212.19 on October 29, following Huang’s announcement of substantial sales commitments for their Blackwell AI processors and forthcoming Rubin chips, totaling $500 billion. These sales are expected to be reflected in financial results for 2026.
Nvidia’s Market Position and Analyst Outlook
Market analysts express mixed feelings about Nvidia’s upcoming performance. Jordan Klein, an analyst at Mizuho Securities, noted in a recent report that the extensive analysis surrounding Nvidia may obscure its ability to surpass investor expectations. Klein commented, “Investors are on edge and heightened alert that AI capex spend is getting to excessive levels.”
Despite the concerns, expectations for Q3 earnings are relatively optimistic. Analysts surveyed by FactSet predict Nvidia will report adjusted earnings of $1.25 per share with revenue of approximately $54.8 billion for the quarter ending October 26. This represents year-over-year increases of 55% in earnings and 56% in sales.
- Q3 Earnings Expectations:
- Adjusted Earnings: $1.25 per share
- Revenue: $54.8 billion
- Year-over-Year Earnings Growth: 55%
- Year-over-Year Sales Growth: 56%
Future Projections
Looking ahead to fiscal Q4, analysts forecast earnings of $1.44 per share and revenue of $62 billion, marking respective increases of 62% and 58%. However, Klein pointed out that Nvidia’s stock may struggle to gain traction unless revenue forecasts exceed $65 billion. Historically, Nvidia shares have shown volatility, declining after three of the last five quarterly reports.
Impact on the Market
Nvidia’s performance is particularly influential on major market indices, such as the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, emphasized the company’s significant impact on tech-focused exchange-traded funds, specifically the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and the Technology Select Spider ETF (XLK). Nvidia currently holds a market cap close to $4.5 trillion, reinforcing its status in the tech sector.
Investor Sentiment
While some analysts are bullish, others urge caution. Deutsche Bank’s Ross Seymore has rated Nvidia stock as a hold, setting a price target of $180. As of the latest stock market update, Nvidia shares had dipped slightly, trading at $186.74 and just above the 50-day moving average.
Concerns over an ‘AI bubble’ have prompted increased scrutiny over significant capital investments made by major tech companies. Seymore commented on the cautious investor sentiment, noting ongoing scrutiny of AI-related spending.
With earnings season in full swing, Nvidia’s upcoming report will shed light on its role in the evolving AI landscape, and many look forward to insights that could influence market trends in the coming months.
