Rare Bitcoin Futures Signal May Surprise Traders: Is a Bottom Forming?

The Bitcoin market is experiencing noteworthy changes as the futures-to-spot basis has dipped into negative territory. This trend indicates a shift in trader sentiment, moving towards a more cautious approach. Bitcoin futures are currently trading below the spot price, marking the first occurrence since March 2023.

Understanding Bitcoin Futures and Spot Prices

The negative basis suggests that traders are becoming increasingly wary of taking risks. Historically, a negative futures basis indicates either position unwinding or preparations for market volatility. BTC is currently in what is termed the “Base Zone,” which is characterized by lower exposure and heightened selling pressure.

Current Market Trends

• Both seven-day and 30-day moving averages for Bitcoin are trending downward.
• This trend confirms a bearish outlook in the futures market.
• Since August 2023, negative seven-day averages have often foreshadowed bottom formations during bullish phases.

If the market has not fully transitioned into a bear cycle, this may act as an early recovery indicator. However, if conditions mirror those of January 2022, it may herald a deeper downturn. A recovery above the 0%–0.5% basis range could signal renewed trader confidence.

Leverage Ratio Insights

Recent data reveals that the BTC-USDT futures leverage ratio has adjusted to around 0.3. This lower ratio indicates a cooling off from the previously overheated market conditions seen in Q2 and Q3 of 2023. A healthier futures structure reduces forced-liquidation risks.

If the market enters a bullish phase, this refined leverage environment could allow traders to re-risk more effectively, enhancing market stability.

Indicators of Market Sentiment

Crypto analyst Pelin Ay highlighted that internal exchange flow trends add to the current negative outlook. This metric tracks the volume of Bitcoin transferred between internal wallets, a sign of liquidity management or operational needs among exchanges.

Historical Context of Internal Transfers

Significant spikes in this metric often correlate with turbulent market conditions. For instance, between late 2024 and early 2025, substantial internal transfer spikes followed rapid price increases, leading to steep corrections. A similar pattern emerged in May and June 2025, when Bitcoin surged from $60,000 to $90,000.

Current Developments

• In early November 2023, internal transfer volumes surged beyond the usual range of 5–10.
• This spike accompanied Bitcoin’s sharp drop from above $110,000 to $95,000.

Such trends are indicative of liquidity stress and intensified market volatility. Given the combination of negative basis, rising internal flows, and downward market momentum, Bitcoin appears to be actively searching for a bottom.

As always, it is crucial to approach the volatile crypto market with caution. Every investment decision should be backed by thorough research and an understanding of the inherent risks.