Thanksgiving Air Travel Declines 5% Amid Record Flight Operations

The Thanksgiving travel period is shaping up to be notable for various reasons. According to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), more than 360,000 flights are scheduled for Thanksgiving 2025, marking it as potentially the busiest travel season in 15 years. However, differing data from aviation analytics firm Cirium reveals a decline in holiday travel bookings.

Decline in Thanksgiving Travel Bookings

Cirium has released data showing that Thanksgiving travel bookings are down by 4.48% compared to 2024. This analysis covers the travel period from November 26 to November 30, 2025, compared to the same dates in 2024, specifically highlighting bookings made between June 30 and November 21 of each year. This data is derived from over 450,000 bookings across various online travel agencies.

Data Analysis and Caveats

• The 4.48% decline reflects a significant year-over-year drop, contrasting with previous growth trends.
• Despite this decline, some bookings data suggests a modest year-over-year increase of about 1%.
• The data does not include direct airline bookings, creating potential discrepancies in flight demand insights.

FAA’s Record Flight Operations

In stark contrast to the declining booking data, the FAA anticipates that Thanksgiving 2025 will witness a record number of flights. The agency’s projections indicate that over 360,000 flights will operate during this holiday period, emphasizing a remarkable increase in scheduled operations.

Flight Trends and Passenger Demand

This increase in scheduled flights does not correlate with passenger demand, which is expected to decline. The FAA’s figures suggest that while airlines plan to operate a higher number of flights, fewer travelers may be taking to the skies.

Travel Uncertainties and Passenger Experience

Cirium notes a significant slowdown in booking momentum starting October 31, 2025. This may indicate a shift in consumer sentiment due to uncertainties affecting travel plans. As such, travelers may experience less congestion at airports, potentially leading to a more comfortable journey despite the high number of flights.

Conclusion: A Mixed Bag for Thanksgiving Travel

This Thanksgiving season presents an interesting scenario. Airlines will manage a record volume of flights while simultaneously dealing with a projected 4.5% decline in actual passenger numbers. This juxtaposition may lead to less crowded airports and flights with available seats, creating a unique travel experience this holiday season.