Economy Secretary Predicts Cautious 2026 GDP Outlook
During a recent session of the Legislative Assembly, Secretary for Economy and Finance Tai Kin Ip faced pressure from lawmakers regarding the GDP forecast for 2026. Despite their inquiries, he refrained from giving a specific figure, stating only that he anticipated “positive growth.”
Cautious 2026 GDP Outlook
The session was primarily focused on the first reading of the government’s 2026 budget proposal. Alongside this, lawmakers approved a gross gaming revenue (GGR) estimate of MOP236 billion (approximately US$29.38 billion) for the coming year.
Performance Reference
In justifying the optimistic revenue prediction, Tai Kin Ip referenced the performance from the first half of the current year. He highlighted that the average monthly GGR stood at MOP19.66 billion, a figure that, when annualized, aligns closely with the government’s revenue forecast.
Current Challenges
However, the Secretary noted that there were mixed results in the first ten months of this year. In five of those months, the actual gross gaming revenue did not meet expectations, indicating some volatility. Tai also mentioned that external economic forecasts have introduced challenges for Macau, a small economy that is particularly sensitive to market fluctuations.
Budget Overview
The proposed budget for 2026 anticipates government revenue of nearly MOP118.8 billion. This is contrasted against an expected expenditure of approximately MOP113.5 billion. Should these projections hold true, the government could end up with a surplus exceeding MOP5.3 billion.
- 2026 GGR Estimate: MOP236 billion (US$29.38 billion)
- Average Monthly GGR (First Half 2023): MOP19.66 billion
- Forecasted Revenue: MOP118.8 billion
- Expected Expenditure: MOP113.5 billion
- Projected Surplus: Over MOP5.3 billion
This cautious outlook emphasizes the need for ongoing assessment of both local and global economic conditions as Macau prepares for the upcoming fiscal year. The results of this year’s performance will significantly influence the secretary’s forecasts moving forward.
